brand loyalty - show me a mac user that would rather a zune and i’ll show you something else stupid. digital media players are only around a 20% household penetration, but virtually everyone knows what an ipod is. therefore, when people are ready to buy/upgrade, most will stick with what they know either through loyalty or exposure.

consumer knowledge - reviewers are looking at this from a ‘been there, done that’ standpoint forgetting that the zune is targeting the other 80% with promises of easier sharing, easier purchasing, easier etc, not specifically the uber users. case and point, at the mall this weekend i overheard someone ask for “the one that plays microsoft mp3’s” - not the brand of player. upon further eavesdropping did not mean the wma/wmv formats either. this person had a “microsoft computer” and wanted it make sure “it worked” and didn’t want the “apple one” because of compatibility fears. if even one in every hundred of the 80% of people that are left are like this, the zune will become very ‘popular’ if even under false pretenses because of consumer ignorance and/or misunderstanding.

fwiw, i realize it sounds as though i contradict myself with the “sticking with what they know through exposure, eg, ipod” statement and the story above, but that also means exposure of “apple vs microsoft” - compatibility struggles, proprietary hard/software, and bashing each other since, oh, the beginning of time…