
In this very special episode of The Futurist, we take a myopic look into the future. Three weeks into the future, that is, to a land called Las Vegas and an event called CES — the annual tech orgy where PR people treat men’s mag product reviewers to lap dances, the smell of choco-fountains permeates the air of every corridor, and there is nary a blogger around without sore cankles from endless meeting-shuffling.
While surprises will inevitably pop up, and my propensity for signing my name on any NDA agreement thrown in my face prevents me from disclosing a few of the things that I do know, there’s still a lot we can surmise about what lies just around the temporal corner.
This week we take a look at a few of the things we can expect to see next month. I’ve thrown in a couple of notable tech items that could pop up, but am mostly focusing on the interesting foibles and show mechanics that are worth keeping an eye on as CES marches on towards in inevitable E3-like self-destructive fate. And, after every one of my predictions inevitably proves wrong, you can throw printouts of this column in my face.
Click the jump to gaze into the crystal ball, and don’t forget to check back here in January for CrunchGear’s around-the-clock coverage of CES…
Guitar Hero for the Wii
Imagine a wireless Guitar Hero controller especially made for the Wii that tracks your movements and causes your little rock God avatar mimic them. That would only be the greatest game ever. And don’t think it hasn’t crossed those crazy Nintendo game wizards’ minds…
PR Squatters
Setting up a CES booth ain’t cheap. Not only does the CEA charge PS3-level prices for floor space, but many of these massive constructions are literally multi-room, multi-floor buildings built to stand for a week before being dismantled into landfill-filler (my favorite last year was iRiver’s—they made a miniature nightclub-type shack, complete with plush couches, a DJ, and, of course, booth babes.) For some companies, the investment may just not seem quite worth it, and getting a journo to schlep across town to your suite at the Caeser’s for a private meeting is a lost cause. That’s why we can expect to see lots of skeezy PR people with their radars on the lookout for journalists with primo name tags (national TV, large circ magazines, and top newspapers can expect the most hounding), as they try to push their wares without paying rent.
Mobile TV
Current shoreside offerings are slim and nowhere near Korea-quality. Obviously, the key will be to get live feeds of stations we want to watch, not cruddy mobi-sodes featuring the supporting cast of The Office (a show I love) or, my favorite, the Hawaiian Tropics Bikini Contest (Sprint sells clips of this softest of softcore porn for a mere $6.99-or-so per month. Thanks, Sprint!) Leading the charge this year will be MediaFlo, but also keep your eye on HTC-teamed Modeo and their Foreseer phone. And it’s pretty much a given that our CDMAers Sprint and Verizon will grab an early lead in this department. Cingular will likely pull a close third, with budget and party-minded T-Mobile bringing up the rear. Look out for all four, as well as the MVNOs, to tout 2007 as the year of the mobile video, and then to repeat that proclamation next year when no one uses it. Also, look out for dark horse Sling Media, whose Sling Mobile app (which premiered at last year’s convention) may very well pour cold water on this industry’s Goliaths before it ever hits critical mass.
Small Companies, Big Booths
The Main Hall is traditionally dominated by a few ginormous “booths” (the word is kind of a misnomer, considering that some of them are warehouse-sized), but expect the new wave of no-namers to try to steal some prestige by setting up shop in decent sized spaces next door to Sony and Samsung. Last year, Korean mini-monolith Coby pulled out some prime Main Hall real estate a stone’s throw Panasonic. Expect Vizio, Sceptre, and loads of other companies that I haven’t heard of to blow their entire year’s marketing budget by trying the same this time. This is their chance to show they can run with the big boys, and nothing says “B-list” like setting up shop in the South Hall (or, God forbid, the Sands), where iPod accessory and Indian microprocessor companies feel at home.
The Parties
Schlepping around the convention centers is only part of a good CES attendee’s job. Just as important are the parties — necessary for journos to fuse those bonds of trust with PR people that lead to NDAs and hugs. If you’re in town, try your best to get on the list for Motorola (last year’s motoPRTY featured the Foo Fighters), Monster Cable (Stevie Wonder), and Kodak (an ethically-questionable gift bag).
The PlayStation 3 Memorial Award
It’s hard to say for sure who the first recipient will be of our annual award for the product that makes the most trade show rounds before ever showing up on a store shelf, but the smart money is on SED TVs (in all fairness, they never claimed to have them available before late 2007). Throw your nominations in “Comments,” as well as any other CES predictions you’ve got up your sleaves.

Seth Porges writes on future technology and its role in personal electronics for his column, The Futurist. It appears every Thursday and an archive of past columns is available here.









What? The booth babes get thrown into dumpsters? Who wants to go dumpster diving after the show :P It’s also terrifying that monster cable has made enough money over the last year to be able to hire Stevie Wonder.
Does anyone know if CES is still the largest convention in the world? I’m sure some of the military ones must be massive (both form a size and a coolness point of view)
My prediction for PS3 award winner? Why, its closest rival, the Phantom (assuming you can find the very booth-like area in the cheapest part of the warehouse :P)
IKEA should be thanking their lucky stores that these manufacturers don’t shop at their store for their trade booths (they got drawers, glass, everything needed to build these things). Imagine the return line the day after the show!
I really like the idea of the “wireless” guitar controller Seth… imagine being able to play bass, acoustic and any other guitar for a fraction of the cost of getting a real one. Another possible huge winner for Wii… the more I hear about Wii… the more impressed I am about their console. I think they got an underpowered winner! That is, until they re-release a more powerful version to compete directly with PS3 (it’s inevitable).
PR guys… well, the booth gets the attention, no doubt but if the product sucks… the company just looks dumb as people realize where the money went (marketing vs R&D).
Mobile TV… I don’t even watch TV here, why would I want to watch it on a screen half the size of my sandwich? This is a fad, nothing more… once the novelty wears off – people will realize how silly it is to watch any type of extended drama on a cell phone (or other very small mobile device).
Parties… attended a few by Discreet (now Autodesk)… where interesting but do you really want to spend hours talking about the same thing with people with exactly the same interest? Maybe some people like this… but I found it dull no matter how much boose they where trying to get me to “chug, chug, chug”.
I said my peace ;-)
Jon
If people started buying their A/V cables online, Stevie Wonder wouldn’t be there, I suppose!
And Jon–As for mobile TV, I’d agree, if it weren’t for the fact that it absolutely BLEW UP in Asia after only a year or two of its debut. And, if anything, Americans are even more TV-addicted than our Asian friends (I’m sure we watch more hours per day.) The one question is if we can find any time when we aren’t parked in a car or at our desks that we aren’t ALREADY watching TV!
And, as for the Guitar Hero thing, it is absolutely inevitable. GH2 is coming to Xbox 360 soon, so there’s no reason to keep it off Wii. And I think Nintendo is really trying to make the games that come out on Wii that have been ported from other systems Wii-unique in ways that utilize its capabilities. This would just rule, I believe.
Seth, CNN had a poll and the average American spends 10 (yes, ten) hours A DAY watching some sort of TV. That is hard to beat, figure you need 8 hours of sleep and 8 hours of work per day… my guess is the weekend is when most Americans sit and don’t move till Sunday night. It would explain both the Obesity epidemic and the Diabetes epidemic criss-crossing your nation.
Jon
Jon:
The US census for 2005 just reported that the average American spends roughly 8.5 hours a day doing something involving media (TV, internet, computer, reading). I think 10 hours a day of solely TV is sorely inflated and misstated, and it is definitely sensationalist journalism by CNN, which I wouldn’t put past any news network.
As for Guitar Hero for Wii, I can imagine the air guitar being phased out for a suped up WiiMote with which you could make your avatar rock out to your styles. Anyone see a Jimi Hendrix or Jimmy Page being raised on Guitar Hero?
Jon… as everybody knows… statistics can be interpreted in more ways then CrunchGear has gadgets ;-) Anyways, thanks for not killing the messenger… I am happy I gave you something else to “comment” about ;-)
Jon
Hey Seth, I’ll be there. Could you give me some pointers as to how I can go about getting my name on those party lists?
Thanks!
email me mate