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With kind regards to Penny-Arcade
Does Microsoft fear Linux? Should it fear Linux? Does it fear Linux only in certain sectors, like Web servers, and not others, like the desktop? What exactly does “fear” mean here? Why do I still watch Lost? All important questions that deserve highly developed answers. PBS attempted to answer some of these questions, but that was in 1998. A lot has changed since then. I, for example, now wear a size 11 shoe as opposed to a 7.
I tend to view Linux as two different animals, rightly or wrongly. There’s Linux for the desktop, like Ubuntu, Gentoo, Knoppix and whatever flavor-of-the-month distro gets mentioned on this week’s Tekzilla. (I actually like Tekzilla, being a former TechTV viewer.) The average person, the man or woman who uses the computer at work to create spreadsheets or to order paper, doesn’t know Linux from Adam. At least until this past week, that is. They skip along happily, clicking “start” at the beginning of every day. Desktop Linux, supposedly, is for these folks, and certain distros, most notably Ubuntu, offer an easy-to-use environment, no command line needed. But really, with a 0.65 percent market share, do you really think Microsoft is worried about losing out to Linux? Its biggest competitor is Mac OS X, and that’s still only on 7.5 percent of all computers.
Linux on the server, however, is a whole ‘nother matter. A quick trip to microsoft.com offers a glimpse of how Redmond feels about the free as in freedom OS. There’s all sorts of charts and graphs and mentions of total costs of ownership.
But is that enough to call Microsoft “afraid” of Linux?
Judging by what Microsoft told me yesterday, the company seems as cool as you like and doesn’t view Linux, desktop or otherwise, as any sort of legitimate threat. Hubris? Hardly.
We have always had a very healthy attitude toward competition, knowing that it is always good for customers…. and we are confident that Windows Vista is the platform to enhance the individual digital lives of people around the world…. Windows Vista is on track to be the fastest selling operating system in Microsoft’s history, also thanks to our strong partner ecosystem.
That’s what the company’s rapid response team (well, that’s the name I gave it) told me. Even controlling for PR spin, to me those don’t look like the words of someone’s who’s “afraid” of anything. And why should it? Even though Vista has been universally panned—and some of that may not be specifically Microsoft’s fault—sales of 100 million licenses indicates that, someone, somewhere still takes Microsoft and Windows seriously.
And Linux on the deskop—come on now, really? Yes, Devin’s comments in this week’s Unreasonable Stance were a little on the bombastic side, but his general skeptical tone of Linux “making it,” or however you want to phrase it, looks right to me. Fact is, most people use the OS that ships with their computer. People who bought a mid-range Dell will use Windows XP or Vista for the life of the computer. The incoming college student who got a MacBook for his high school graduation will use Leopard. Do we really think that for all our huffing and puffing about Linux being more secure, which I’m not even disputing, we’ll get the average user to switch over? Convincing your friends to use Firefox instead of IE is trivial compared to asking someone to move away from Windows. I remember when I told one of my relatives that I got a Mac (this was a few years ago) he replied with something like, “Oh what type of Windows does it have?”
The average I-use-computers-to-check-my-e-mail-and-CNN-every-morning user is content with Windows. Tell them to turn on the built-in firewall and not to click strange things and you’ve solved any number of problems right there. Education, not a knee-jerk “switch to Linux!” reaction to the security problem is the best solution.
Not that I don’t like Linux. My experience with the OS sorta mirrored Biggs’. I remember once my high school closed early because of a gas leak or something else equally unsafe. Rather than use the free day to “hang out” with my friends, I installed Red Hat 8 on some old POS Compaq we had. More recently, I’ve been playing around with gOS. If the Wi-Fi support was a little better (read: if it worked on my MacBook), I could see myself taking in-class notes using Google Docs just to stand out. But just because I enjoy screwing around with command line doesn’t mean I’m gonna turn around and tell my uncle to drop his Windows setup.
So, should Microsoft be afraid of Linux? I really doubt it. I honestly can’t see regular users switching away from Windows, pirated or otherwise, to Linux. On the server market, yes, there’s a little more competition, but that just means Microsoft will have to actually try to innovate and convince its customers that a Windows license is worth their while.
I liked this article a lot but disagree with your final paragraph. I think that Ubuntu has gotten a competitive spirit into Linux users. Where before it was “we like using it” now it’s “let’s spread the OS.” I have personally gotten about 10 people on it (since Gutsy release), including my mom (who loves it), my girlfriend (who also loves it), and now my girlfriend’s mom is saying that she wants to ditch Vista for Hardy– each are almost completely anti-computer so the requests and the enjoyment of Ubuntu has been a bit of a surprise to me but I think proof that a change is occurring in the industry — now all we need to do is raise the funds for a few commercials to show off Compiz and other “pretty” things that people like to see!
Microsoft should and does fear the EEE PC, which is on track to eclipse the Mac install base. It’s a home run for Asus and after half a year on the market they still can’t make enough for people who want to buy them. What was supposed to be a two or three hundred dollar laptop is a sellout at $400. Free software distributors can better do everything Microsoft can and more at much lower cost. Apple did this years ago with BSD for OS X but they made the result non free and that cost them plenty. Asus has done the same thing for next to nothing by simply leaving the software as free as they found it. Other companies will follow and the less restrictive an obfuscated they are the lower their cost will be. This is a trend Microsoft can’t buck without going into the litigation death spiral. If you see SCO as a Microsoft proxy, Microsoft has already entered that death spiral.
Like Sony’s Mike Abary, Microsoft should equally fear the “Race to the bottom” which comes with netbooks and nettops. The “race to the bottom” will happen soon, because the technology is available and the eee-pc has proven that there is a market for these devices. With modern flash technology, low power Intel CPU’s directly soldered to the motherboard and “System on Chip” VLSI devices coming soon, we’ll see computers with significantly less components and a potential to be very cheap. Computers are not that cool nowadays and many users will go low cost when they can save money. Eee-PC with Linux preinstalled has proved feasibility of desktop Linux even for kids. Microsoft will try to compete with Linux by expanding availability of XP for these devices, but they will have near zero profit once the race is on. XP being wasteful, it is not really optimized for the new market and success is not certain by now. If Microsoft fails, customers get used to Linux and Microsoft will loose their dominance on the desktop. This would put their cash cow’s (Windows & Office) at risk. Windows may be preferred by most Americans. Other countries like India, Europe, Russia, China, Brazil are far less inclined to Microsoft. The computer market is a global market. When there is a significant Linux inroad in one of these markets, more applications will be ported to be WEB-applications or directly to Linux and Linux driver support will improve. This would be another threat to Microsoft dominance. Microsoft will not vanish any time soon, but without dominance it’s far more challenging to get the profits Microsoft is used to. Exciting times lie ahead.
I don’t want to be nitpicking, but Europe isn’t a country. Excellent points, though.
The European Union (which is practically all of Europe) for all intents and purposes is a country. I don’t see the error in calling “Europe” a country.
you motherfucking dickhead! go and get a life. europ is NOT a country! go back to mars noob! europ has over 30 countries IN it! but its not a country itself. tool!
I don’t really disagree with this, but it’s a US centric view of the world. There an assumption that for Linux to ‘make it’ on the desktop they have to conquer windows in the US.
I quite like the idea that the US will cling to windows. Let them I say. One day they’ll feel left out, poor puppies.
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very nice thanks !
nice article.
i’ve tried numerous times dual booting to ubuntu – i’m computer literate, though not ‘expert’ – and everytime i’ve simply fixmbr back to windows.
it’s not that i haven’t the desire to dump windows, it’s just that which ever pc i load windows on (w2k or xp), it simply works. no hassles with sound, display etc., with ubuntu there’s ALWAYS a problem somewhere, and though i’m willing to tr and find a solution via the net, most times they involve quite convoluted command line instructions, etc.,
i’ll have the time for linux when, as mentioned above, i simple load the os and off i go….
leslie
I hope it stays that way. There was a time where I was “the computer expert” among family and friends. I wished I had the “No I will not fix your computer” T-shirt tow wear. Now, I just go “Sorry, I use Linux.”
“Windows Vista is on track to be the fastest selling operating system in Microsoft’s history”
Wait. What? Fastest selling to be turned around and replaced by Windows XP once the person gets their hands on the computer would be the more appropriate thing to say.
And to Leslie Wand, you will be able to load and go very shortly. Hardy Heron will provide an easy, windows based, installer.
thanks david – i don’t have any problems installing linux (various distros, though mostly ubuntu), it’s the various drivers thereafter.
eg. have an old armada 1750 (with 375 ram) on which windows loads (at least 98 / w2k) with no problems, ie. sound, display, network etc., all work instantly. with even the latest ubuntu i have no sound or network nor any clear (understandable) instructions as to how to remedy these problems.
but not to worry, i’ll wait, after all, looks like i’m going to be waiting for win 7…..
lesle
I definitely disagree with your statement. On the three computers I have at home here (one HP, one Dell and one custom-made) I tried to dual boot Ubuntu and Windows Vista. Only the Dell computer had no driver problems with Vista, for the other two I had to go get drivers made by hobbyists or I had to contact customer support. Compared to that, Ubuntu didn’t have much trouble getting at least basic drivers to work, and even if I did encounter a problem the needed driver could usually be found in the repositories. In the meanwhile, I’ve switched all three computers back to an XP/Ubuntu dual boot, which works fine. I’m not saying Windows’ driver support is bad per se, but as far as Vista goes… I’m not so sure.
Well, I‘ll stick with OSX I think.
One thing we all shoul keep in mind when discussing this topic, is that MS relies on the power of its marketshare in its marketing strategies. Recently they experienced more failure than anything else. I won‘t be mentioning Zune here, and the fact, that the XBox isn‘t profitable for MS, altough having gained a reasonable share, is a different matter, too.
IE is more important. The same goes for Apple and the various Linuxes gaining marketshare for years now.
It‘s hard to imagine that MS could stick to theit ways when losing more and more of this power over the market, the standards etc.
I‘m certainly not trying to naivly picture a world without MS. We will see what will happen. But I doubt that MS will be the one who is prepared to change or re-invent itself in order to make it in this new enviroment with all the different kinds of mobile devices, omni-present technology and the need for new, inventive concepts. Occupying the offices, then the living-room by the office suiteand subsequently using text, video and audio file incompatibilities as your watch dog won‘t do the trick anymore.
I highly doubt Microsoft fears many competitors. Agree with me or not, but they do have some of the world’s greatest engineering talent and a practically unlimited budget.
I work for an engineering software company and we recently partnered with Microsoft to develop our software on their relatively new Computer Cluster Server 2003 OS. Linux currently OWNS this domain but somehow we’re developing our software for MS, not Linux.
Maybe it’s because Microsoft is giving us thousands and thousands of dollars in sponsorships and hardware to give us a jump-start on the development. We just didn’t have it in the budget to make the up-front investment, but with the help of MS we will be officially supporting their CCS OS in two months. This never happens with Linux.
Lesson learned: If MS wants something, they can throw enough resources at it to make it happen.
Microsoft have a large volume of mediocre engineering talent and a small volume of decidedly so-so management talent.
With Vista, they threw bucketloads of money (and time) at it and, no, they could not make it happen. They keep saying it is just about to happen with the next service pack. This is the real lesson: badly managed software development can be a totally bottomless money pit, and absorb any and all resources. Software is simply not the same as roadbuilding or breaking rocks with hammers. Putting a little bit of team smarts in at just the right time will result in productivity gains of 10x or 100x or even larger. That’s the equation that simple minded bean-counting just can’t fathom.
Wait. Was anybody credible actually suggesting Microsoft should fear Linux? Or, were you just building a straw man to make yourself look smart?
Open Source technology is changing the face of IT with it’s internet centric focus. One with any smarts can certainly see observe hugely popular open source LAMP web technology, cheap portable devices and laptops and Linux desktop improvement in general-will be hard to stop in the future. Microsoft can throw all the money they want but they are not leading in technology and they are surely losing. They have built their success on selling proprietary software and they running scared of Google. Hence their recent “Opening up statements”. Reminds me of China in 1980.
I suspect Microsoft will start with the litigation and patent-FUD on an even larger scale than present.
Make no mistake MS is scared, very scared. Not just about Linux but FOSS in general.
They will spend billions buying political parties in many countries, getting FOSS software banned or severely curtailed.
Ballmer is a loud mouthed fool with billions at his disposal. Corruption is the only way forward, and I expect the only way of business Ballmer/MS know.
I use Linux, it simply works. Windows does not!
I switched my sister to Ubuntu 7.1 after she had a virus outbreak, installed a few educational software for the kids, picasa, google earth, moved her files (pictures)… and configured pingin for chat… that’s it! please note that I don’t even use it myself, but I don’t want to risk receiving those support calls too often! so far she’s very happy!
this blog sucks fcuking ass
I agree with gjklertuio!
I think today M$ should fear MacOS X, not Linux.
I am a great fan of UNIX systems and I like the base behind Linux and BTW, I hate M$ and Windows. I am a switcher from WIndows. Today my main system is a Mac and I use Linux almost regularly. I think Linux is a good system and has improved a lot in the last 6 years but it is still a geek system. I think Linux lost its power when it split in one trillion flavors, like CentOS, Fedora, Debian Linux, etc. That split caused confusion, zillion of ways to do the same thing, differences in documentation, installation, etc. I am an advanced user and even for me sometimes is very hard to configure something and make it work on Linux.
Mac OS X is, on the other hand, the most amazing Unix based system ever launched as it combines the incomparable power of Unix with efficiency and easy of use. Mac OS X has the most advanced UI ever built.
Linux, on the other hand, has a power engine under the hood but is a rustic not polished system with lots of pointy corners. The day linux round those edges is the way it will be popular and M$ will be desperate.
Actually the big competition to M$ is Mac OS X.
Your article makes great points but I think also misses the “point”.
Toyota/Honda was not a threat to GM, Ford, Chrysler and AMC in the 50’s/60’s….but eventually it become one.
Linux it is correct plays such a minor role in desktop…but larger role in servers…and an even larger role in media servers…and even larger role in embedded devices (cell phones, car navigation systems, etc).
Microsoft is going to get smaller and Linux will get bigger no doubt about it.
Why is MS trying to control OpenSourceTech like the OpenSource document etc?
Some knowledge of computers, no knowledge of economy whatsoever. I would consider you to be too young. What you dont get is, that we are moving on more and more competitive market, and every dollar counts. The problem with OSs like Windows or Mac is that they are relics from different – offline – era. All you require nowadays is browser, in your cellphone, in your pda, in you nbook, in you wristwatch. Ask google. Think of gOS, think of Mozilla Prism, thingk of Eee PC. Having to pay for OS is right now moving from convinient to ridiculous. Wait 5 years and youll see yourselve ;)
If Ubuntu is too hard for you, try SabayonLinux (www.sabayonlinux.org). It has all the drivers/codecs. This distro works out of the box on my pc, Windows XP doesnt (you need to install the video driver, network driver, sound driver, chipset driver, PATA/SATA raid driver, TV card driver, Webcam driver and mouse/keyboard driver), in Windows Vista I only have to install the video driver, webcam driver that isn’t there and the tv card driver.
So on every PC that I have to “repair” I install Sabayon linux, because it’s much easier, so I think Microsoft really has to fear “Linux.”
(and btw: Windows XP is old, your cpu performs around 25% lower than Linux/BSD)
You (and maybe Microsoft) are making a mistake when trying to estimate Linux’s market share, versus that of Microsoft.
It’s not about how many copies of Linux are sold, it is about how many desktops (or servers) you’ll find Linux residing on. And I’m guessing (without hard evidence) that it is far higher than the 0.65% that Microsoft uses when quoting market share.
The PC I’m typing this on, started life as a Microsoft box, but as Windows evolved into bloatware, and cost of ownership kept on rising, I migrated over to Linux, which is free.
In the corporate world, the biggest bar to entrance is not training, because frankly most users could care less, so long as they can get their jobs done. It is the entrenched MS products, especially Exchange/Outlook, that keep Windows alive there. New startups that have an opportunity to “Try before they buy” might do well to look around before they commit to the considerable expense of MS on their desktops and their servers. While it is a little harder to find qualified IT support, it is certainly doable. And the costs of the products themselves are minimal. Those stations that need MS compatibility for specialized applications can co-exist just fine within that framework.
MS is AOL (Afraid Of Linux).. and has been for awhile..
Which is why they spend so much on Marketing, FUD, Exclusivity deals/contracts, Patents, etc. etc..
And even they have made deals with Novell/Suse & Xandros etc and even sell those? (where they may have too)
They still will remain (apparently) dominate for a long while. Especially marketing/distribution wise in some or most markets.
Then there is the “market” & how people choose to parse it, and who pays for & publishes it
Linux is grossly underreported or ignored.
Yet enterprise & institutional unit sales (with hardware) is equal if not more than all Mac sales.
Since ‘04 HP has been selling more than a Million units a year outside the US.
Then there are those who use all the freely distributed Distros World Wide.
Open standards?
Open Formats?
Yes.. if they are not afraid,
(Windows7, Singularity?)
maybe they should be?
Linux isn’t ready for prime time yet. Still a little to complex for the average joe.
I like Linux. I dual boot XP/Ubuntu. But as far as far as ease of use for the average user goes, I still think MAC/Windows has the edge. With MAC/Windows it doesn’t require command prompts or the need to jump through hoops to do basic tasks. It still seems Linux is geared to the tech user. People want a OS where everything works out of the box.
I recently installed Ubuntu Gutsy Gibbon. Now I have dual boot with Vista, but I started thinking of removing the partition with Vista, because I don’t have any problems with Ubuntu, I like it and it works much faster.
Yes, MSFT has ‘jumped the shark’ evidenced by:
Playing catch up –
- Lack of vision with regards to internet technologies (from the early browser wars to Google to Web2.0 to Yahoo, etc.)
- Late to realize Open Source users were not a myth and Open Source developers crank out some dang impressive code – some of which appears to be ‘emulated’ in Vista, more planned for Win7 (or, so I’ve heard) – ev. port25, etc.
Going Stale –
- Gates at CES
- Ballmer at anything
- MSFT/MSDN blogs — PR/Dissing Linux/Yawnnnnnnn
- Tech (MSFT) articles linking to ’studies’ (MSFT) showing everything (Linux, Ubuntu, OSX, etc) SUCKS and Vista/Windows Server RAWKS!! – of course this is all hosted at MSFT with some rather interesting methodologies applied
- No longer ‘the place to work’ for young techies (as a matter of fact, several of the best/brightest have left MSFT)
- No longer the only way to get things done for the avg user (Linux distros development and vision trumped MSFT’s)
Even people on the inside notice
- Vista memos
- A few brave employee blogs
- Ext of XP availability/Vista damage control – ramping up of Win7 dev (But, sorry Bill, it ain’t coming out next year)
Yeah, they’re scared and scrambling – but, they won’t be able to buy or bury the ‘wide world’ of competitors this time.
The article is good, and I hope every Microsoft person believes that. If we simple divide the computer crowd into two groups programmers + normal users then of course majority of programmers (90%) will prefer Linux right?. For normal users which are of course more in number (including corporate people) will go for Windows. Switching takes time I agree but if the stuff is good people don’t mind. Windows has been having the same defects over years and years of usage. It still hangs hundreds of times. Bug reports are good but whats the use if nobody fixes it. In open source the patch is available in a day or two. With graphical tools to download and patch the system it’s no longer necessary to understand the jargon of RPM’s.
I agree command line scares people, but with distro’s like Fedora 9 command line will become an alternate option (it has i guess in this release). KDE 4.0 coming out with Vista looks and being crash free. I hardly use command line coz everything can be done in GUI. GUI is easy to improve and constant effort will push it forward. But what about Windows, can it be crash free, can it be less buggy. No, coz people there concentrate more on looks and selling point. Same design has been pushed after Windows NT and nobody is willing to touch that coz it has no marketing value. That’s the point, going after marketing value you dont change the things behind the scenes. This is where they will ultimately loose. And yes windows is not gonna be replaced, Linux will just place a check on it’s growth.
Games another thing which has pushed linux on the backend is catching up. I can run my dos games on Linux, and those same games crash on XP. I know nobody pays attention to games like Prince of Persia or older stuff but maybe some do. Gaming in Linux can evolve easily coz of it’s stability. With portability improving, things are on the roll. Try games like lincity-ng, they give much better performance in Linux.
Been a Windows fan for as long as I can remember since 1993. Then when Vista come out I refused to leave XP. So the other alternative was to move to something else that would get updated frequently, so I got Ubuntu. Love it so much, I had no idea how great and flexible it is. I mean I have 1gig of memory in my pc and windows still taking to long to do stuff, while in linux it is a snap. I used to dual boot more often before, but when I heard that I can now install dreamweaver with wine, now I only use it to play my games. That was the only reason most average users use windows in the first place. I was so excited when someone finally got San Andreas installed in Ubuntu. That was turning point for me.