Some people out there are under the impression that they’re the only ones using text messages in the US. Turns out it’s become more popular than you might think, with 301 billion texts forecasted total for 2008. But the SMS’s time in the sun might be over before the zenith, as mobile IM is set to overtake it, or so the analysts say.
I don’t think that’s going to happen this year, and here’s why: With any modern cellphone, you can send an SMS to any other cellphone on any other network in America, and even many other countries. With mobile IM, you only have the network or networks (MSN, Yahoo!, AIM, etc.) that your phone has pre-programmed in. Sure, smartphone users can add new messaging apps, but for RAZR users it’s not really an option.
That being said, we’re seeing a huge move in cellphones from simple utilitarian devices to more complex communicators, phones with advanced messaging and usually QWERTY keyboards. But we’re not there yet. Next year, though, will be the time of the communicators, so that could mean the hatchet for SMS.
A major reason for mobile SMS not being pushed onto the consumer, is surely that the Mobile Operators cannot charge per IM. SMS is a massive revenue generator (in the UK at least), but data is charged differently, and cannot hope to generate the same revenue (especially with the increase in ‘unlimited’ data plans).
With SMS increasingly being displayed as conversations (iPhone & WinMob 6.1), I think the blur between the two will increase. But the walled garden of IM apps is a massive issue.
I think the most important reasons are reluctance to chance and money. People are so used to send SMS that is difficult to change unless there is a motivation. Because usability won’t be (at least now), the only one would be money. When sending IMs over the mobile becomes cheaper (much cheaper) than SMS (even though it is quite expensive) then it will be a motivation and it will take off.
http://mobilespoon.blogspot.com
I think SMS will continue to break all records and prove the soothe sayers wrong. IM like MMS has not a hope of making in-roads and mounting a challenge to SMS dominance. SMS is now established as part of our global culture is there really any products out there as universally simple and easy to use that could supplant it? Come on guys it’s common sense SMS will be dominant and here for at least another generation.
If an IM application does presence it puts a lot more load on the network and phone than SMS. If you try running an application like jaiku or mig33 you will run your battery down much faster than using normal calling and SMS.
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