It’s not like Microsoft is going to be disappearing any time soon, especially with the success of the Windows 7 beta, but its death grip on the PC industry is being eroded on multiple fronts and it’s a good exercise to imagine what it might be like if MS were to take the French leave.
It’s important to note that the question of what happens after Microsoft doesn’t need to mean “what would happen if Microsoft left the picture entirely.” Mostly because that’s not going to happen: they’ll be a part of the post-Microsoft world too. “Microsoft” is more than a company, it’s a way of thinking about computing.
Microsoft has been the champion (that is to say both the winner and head promoter) of the single-unit personal computer since their dominance began. Their solution is wraparound, robust, and in a way, complete. But as the platform of the “personal computer” spreads further and further from the simple “box and monitor” concept — i.e. to phones, tweener devices, and appliances — the OS becomes stretched thin. As much as I like Windows 7, I don’t see it running my fridge.
This an interesting little piece that examines a few options of who would replace Microsoft as the Lord of the Manor. Google would certainly have a finger in that pie, but they’re shrewd enough to simply make themselves compatible with whatever platform took to the fore. Cisco and IBM are not nearly end-user-orientated enough to take over. Apple of course would surge, but the vacuum left by Microsoft would be impossible for them to fill. Linux, as Asay suggests, is on the rise, but despite his enthusiasm the OS not quite ready to assume the mantle.
So there’s no line of succession were Redmond to be sucked into a Wormhole (perish the thought). The Post-Microsoft PC world will have to emerge naturally out of the current one. But how?
There are two paths: fragmentation and modularization.
Fragmentation is what we see now, what we’ve been seeing for some time. Different OSes for different devices, different programs, different code bases, all with allowances for working with one another but not designed for it. We could continue down that path, but the number of devices and the variety of their needs are beginning to multiply more quickly than we can write for them. Viz. the plethora of mobiles and their disparate, semi-related OSes, either obscuring or overstating the capabilities of the hardware.
The point being that one OS won’t stretch far enough, and multiple OSes are too troublesome to maintain.
Modularization it is — if that’s even a word. A more optimistic person might call it “unification,” but realistically it’s not that but a more directed fragmentation. What needs to happen is the stripping down of the OS to its component parts, and the ability to apply them only where necessary. Linux OSes are the leader in this regard, being designed for it from the start, and Apple has demonstrated it somewhat with the quasi-OS X running on the iPhone. Windows has blown it for a while, and although their mobile and embedded solutions are potentially powerful, they are part of a labyrinthine set of dependencies and legacy requirements, caught in the enormous web of the Microsoft software ecosystem.
So you cut the thing to pieces. Modular is the future. Linux was born in pieces, and OS X is ready to be butchered. Microsoft is experimenting, and MinWin may be promising in this regard, but they’re late to the party.
The void left by the Personal Computer with one OS will be filled, as it were, with LEGO-like (or steak-like) building blocks, universally compatible (or at least adaptable) pick-and-choose bits built over a kernel or utterly barebones OS (Unix-like, MinWin, OS X, or other), itself really just a clearinghouse for instructions from the bits. Competition would be among developers for the same “space” in your OS, but competition would extend to the shell, the drivers, the file system, and so on. Sounds a bit like a widget or cloud OS (shudder), but would you call Photoshop and Firefox widgets? Would you load your graphics drivers from the cloud? Web services will increase in popularity and power, but I think well-connected desktop apps enjoy a hybrid vigor that is more essential to this little mix. Of course, the line between web and desktop is already blurry, and it’ll degrade further.
This is not an original idea (modular computing is an ideal pursued for decades), but it is one logical conclusion at this time for what might rush in to fill the void should Windows no longer apply. Making source code open will be essential if the blocks are to fit together, but free is not a necessity (although it would prove popular, as always).
With your permission, I’d like to coin a term for this building-block operating system: LEGOS. Got a ring to it. The original LEGO blocks are capitalized too, so that makes the ambiguous LegOS less of an option. And everybody likes a good portmanteau.
The great variety of OSes these days means the world is a hotbed for innovation, but in the end it is likely that the victor will be the big guy who best cannibalizes the competition. Unfortunately for Microsoft, their paradigm is being challenged (I swore I’d get through this without saying paradagm.. damn) and their OS philosophy is breaking down. Something smaller and more agile will be taking their place if they’re not careful. They may not be prepared to face the future, but we can sure as hell get ready for it.
[Images borrowed and manipulated, pipe up if they're yours]
1 word. Android.
In the 60s computers ran on huge machines that took up an entire room.
Today they run on work stations that take up an entire 2×3 foot rectangle on a desk.
The computers that we use now, and are starting to get away from will seem archaic very soon.
This isn’t about Windows vs. Linux any longer. We’ve passed that point.
Perhaps for the user that uses their computer solely for watching YouTube videos and emailing them to others with “lolwtfbbq” appended. 9_9 A phone can never replace a computer in any area where productivity is required.
Ah, but this too shall pass. And what do they say about saying “never”? Don’t let the small screen and tiny keyboard fool you… cell phone’s are (or will be) the next PC. Already there are projection devices for cell phones becoming available, likewise, full-size bluetooth keyboards. Imagine the world 5-10 years from now: The cell phone itself will be the same size or smaller. In normal circumstances you will use it much like you use them today. In high productivity mode, however, you will detatch the very thinly folded and plyable keyboard on the back. When unfolded it goes through a conformational change that makes it rigid with rising/clicking keys. It will have “stretchable” electronics, not on the inside, but embedded within the material. Built-in HD projection on any surface will be one display option. Another will be thin and lightweight unfolding hi-res bluetooth display glasses or extended-wear, hi-res contacts that you pop in and wear and clean like current contacts. This is not science-fiction. All of what I just mentioned are in either their first generation or well along in their engineering phases.
… And cellphone processors, of course, will be at least as powerful as today’s higher-end notebooks. If the trends of low-power consumption and of closing the gap between workstation and notebooks is pushed further into cellphone processors then you might at that time in the future see the same rediculously powerful processor surving all size platforms.
Dude, you are thinking about phones and PC’s as we see them today.
When they say modular computing they talk about a way so you hold some parts of your computer on (say for example) your phone… It’s not too difficult to think that wireless communications between devices will work someday as a standard, so your monitor, keyboard and mouse pair up with your phone et voila! you have a computer to work at the office crunching numbers, processing words or sending those funny presentations you create with it via email…
Now think a bit further down this road and imagine how this could mean that said phone pairs up with a “modular theater/gaming station” that receives it’s games from discs and/or the web and the phone is your controler.
Your files are in the device but also on Amazon S3, directly accessible from web apps to work with them using whatever software you seem fit to use. So you can use the same big screen you used to play for work too, or not, and have another screen somewhere in your home office area.
But you are on the road now and want to work while on the train or at a business presentation?
Pair your phone with a touch screen that’s lighter because it lacks any other major components other than a battery (enough to power the screen, the wireless comms, and in case you need more juice for your phone).
You don’t really need the noisy behemoth that sits on your desk!
This could also happen in a world WITH Microsoft, and (if you read a tad about Azure or that patent they got rejected not so long ago) might be on their roadmap somewhere…
All of these startups on TC over the past 3 years. Why do you think they all failed?
Their target was a platform that had been around for 15 years, and is too developed for that type of growth. That type of growth is over. It’s run it’s course.
I know a 3rd post is a bit much, but here’s a heads up for the international folks. G1s are not for the rich in America, poor people have them, hos have them, losers with mcdonalds jobs have them.
T-Mobile was getting rid of them for $179. That’s nothing to an American with a job.
Only rich people may have them in your country, but tell yourself you live in the 3rd world compared to us. We’re building tomorrows apps while you work with yesterday’s tech and sdks.
Ah, that explains the Atari in the White House.
In my 3rd world country, we have a better 3g coverage than in the US. We also have a greater percentage of dsl access. And i’m writing this post ffom my bed, on my iphone 3G. Maybe you should stop thinking that there are only third world countries without technology outside the US. When i want to see what happens in a very hi-tech mobile country, i search infos about japan, not the US. Same for fiber access.
Hey Chris Fuck You
“That’s nothing to an American with a job”
Having a job in the US seems to be a big assumption those days…
Let me disagree with you, Chris:
1. We can all agree that it is Asia who has all the tech we crave around the world. Yup, you have the iPhone and the G1… Guess where were those made? Ummm, and the rest of the tech? Dude, the stuff dreams are made of…
2. I believe that it’s mainly India who’s writing the Software stuff we are going to be using for the next five years… Yup, those guys are really really smart.
3. $179 is nothing to you, but back where i live it’s a whole month’s minimal wage. A “loser at a McDonald’s” job in the US might make more money than a recent graduate here… So cheap is a relative term. You know what else is relative? The need to own one of such objects.
4. Yesterday’s tech and SDK? Oh, I’m sorry… I didn’t know that SDK’s and tech had one of those “just for Americans” kinds of clauses!
5. It’s a global economy bro… Get used to have a kid from a country which you cannot locate on a map (or spell correctly) deliver the next best thing.
6. Whenever you speak, please don’t generalize! We do know that NOT ALL AMERICANS are like you.
Couldn’t say it better…
I was in San Francisco for four weeks last year. It is supposed to be the IT capital of the US, but I was so surprised to see how outdated some of the technology was. Every second person I spoke to was an “expert” of sorts, but very few of them really had any clue.
Much of the technology that Americans brag about were actually created by people who where born elsewhere.
I love America and what it stands for, but *please* stop thinking that you are the sole leaders or innovators.
There is a big, big world out there…
Actually San Fran has been dieing a slow death for a while now (the current economy isn’t helping either). I’d say northern Va/DC/Maryland, Boston, NC, Washington, etc. are doing better tech wise than San Fran (startups do not equal high tech). And sadly everyone considers themselves an expert no matter where you go when in reality they shouldn’t be allowed near a computer.
I have to (at least partially) agree with Chris.
You say that India is producing all the software nowadays. I’m a software engineer, and I have seen first-hand what India puts out. They usually don’t care about quality assurance or testing because they’re almost always outsourced. The software quality is poor. The only reason they are used at all is because they are cheap.
You also say that you look to Asia for all the high-tech. Sure, they’re manufactured there, but it’s really about 50/50 where the ideas come from. You can’t tell me that Apple outsourced their iPhone idea to Asia and took it as their own.
The one thing I do disagree with is that Chris has a very stereotypical view of Americans and foreigners, as do some of the other posters. In any country, whether it is the United States or India, companies range from the very high tech with the very latest cutting edge technology to using technology that is decades old. It all fills a gap, and there is almost always a need for the entire spectrum. So in that regard, the stereotypes disappear and there is just.. software.
Good article Devin, I couldn’t agree with you more with the saying of “Microsoft is a way of thinking about computing.” It is particularly true that Microsoft largely, if not entirely, shaped the person computer into what it is today, mainly desktop apps-based machines. But now with the arrival of a new era, the internet generation, most activities are done or executed through the web browser, in where Google has a enormous share of. It will be very interesting to see how Microsoft, this rich old man, whose mind is still sharp, will catch up with the backstreet boys of the computer industry, Google. Good articles!
I would have to disagree to a certain degree. Microsoft did not “largely” shape the current computing paradigm.
The initial Web concept came via Netscape and Mozilla. The original design for a windows environment on a PC and the first PC network came from Xerox Parc.
Microsoft has produced very poor strategies in the past and also the very recent past.
Consider Netbios: What a joke! Poor Interface design is another that particularly erks (?) me. Consider the failings of Vista.
I would, however, agree that Microsoft certainly has been involved in enhancing the PC O/S. For the better or for the worse is a matter for debate.
I like where you put Explorer…
Heh… I actually had put something else there and then was like “hmmm…”
I got four words:
APPLE ROCKS! MICROSOFT SUCKS!
do u have an apple? or u r one of those who has been using illegal copy of windows for ages but continue to scream that Apple Rocks, even if you have seen Mac only on pictures?
Hey kid, go take your fanboism somewhere else. Men are working here.
amen.
if yr gonna follow the leader – I’d stray from Cupertino and Redmond and take a good look around.
legOS is a bit too moviescript clever for me but it’s the right idea. Look deeply at what most good content creators and tools creators are doing right now: upleveling linux.
Where the content goes so do the users.
Just have Adobe port their Creative Suite to Linux. Whatever else you need, Linux has it.
…Windows.
DOS and its MS derivatives have been around for almost 30 years. Why are we talking about post-MS like it’s really going to happen _real soon now_?
Windows exists today mainly to run Office. If you didn’t need to run Office, chances are, you don’t need Windows. Sure, there’s an Mac version of Office, but it doesn’t include Outlook, and the rest of the apps in the suite work differently enough to cause confusion and uncertainty (retraining) among many users. And there’s no VBA (macro) support in the latest version, which I have to believe is part of the strategy to keep Office for the Mac just different and crippled enough so that people who depend on it remain within the Windows fold.
Currently, Windows is too profitable enough for Microsoft to drop it. But there will come a day when the revenue made off of Windows will not pay for the costs to maintain it and further its development.
When that happens, Microsoft will simply support the Office suite on every platform it can. That’s what Microsoft is today — the company that makes Office and its supporting server infrastructure. It is little else than that, but it doesn’t need to be. Office is a huge, huge business, and in reality, Microsoft never needed anything more than that.
I disagree with you notion that MS Office is the only reason that MS Win exists. There are millions of people who use Windows because it is simple and easy to use. You don’t need the arcane command line or counter intuitive one button mouse. For most of the people computers are a medium to connect through Internet easily without all the hassle of dealing with the hardware, TCP/IP et el. And not mention that Windows was one of the primary reason that led to the IT revolution which made computers accessible to the masses. It is very easy to thrash someone’s legacy but just think of it, if you have to gift a computer to your mom who is a newbie what platform you will choose.
The Internet is far far bigger than desktop computing. Microsoft had nothing to do with the explosive growth to the Internet, but tried like hell to kill it by fragmenting it with proprietary protocols.
haha, Richard, that’s hilarious.. how do you think all those people were accessing the internet. they weren’t using linux or macs (i’m speaking of the masses). hindsight is great, but to say MS had nothing to do with the explosive growth of the internet is crazy.
At one time, Windows was a vibrant platform that supported thousands of apps that ran on it. In the past, Windows had a much wider purpose.
As you mention yourself, people typically use a computer to get on the Internet now. The average person does not need to run any local software now except for what is provided in the Office suite. (I’m omitting the Adobe designers and Visual Studio developers since they only make up a small fraction of the total market.)
If it wasn’t for Office, PCs could be delivered PRODUCTIZED with an easy-to-use distribution of Linux that contained all the drivers and everything people would need. Look at the HP touchscreen computers… yes they are running Windows, but they’re hiding a lot of it. Those could have easily been delivering with the same features running Linux instead.
I still stand by what I said… today people mainly want Windows because they want to run Office on it.
And, since you brought up my mom… we got her a MacBook for Christmas… which she uses entirely to get on the Internet. I could have gotten her a laptop running Linux (and she probably wouldn’t know the difference), but I just prefer the Mac hardware.
What computer would I give a newb? Well, someone who hasn’t been trained in the ways of Windows I would put on Linux. With a single update manager for all apps, easy one click software installation, much simpler home directory structure, its an easy choice. I dropped Windows 2 years ago (except on my work laptop) and I still find myself trying to overcomplicate Linux. Its just not that hard.
It’s not that simple. Even Ubuntu, which I consider the easiest Linux distribution (and installation) has some major flaws with its install manager. Open source software suffers from a lack of support. As a result, it is not always properly tested.
If I were a REAL computer newb, I would go with what works right out of the box and what is most intuitive.
Although I do have to admit that Linux has come a LOOOONG way from the installs I did back in the late ’90’s.
If money was not an issue I would give a newbie a MAC if that was likely to suit there requirements.
If money were an issue I would make it an entry level windows box. These have all the bells and whistles an Apple has and can be picked up at a quarter the price.
This is why I am thinking about moving to Windows at some point. Apple is now vastly over priced and the latest update ot OS X seems to have rendered my system a little unstable, though disk first aid insists the disk is OK. I am happy to pay a bit extra for quality but not 300% .
My 76-year old mom runs Ubuntu for the last 2 years and handles the routine maintenance updates on her own. Prior to that she had a chronically out-of-date WIndows/Apps which gave her no end of grief and me no end of calls to fix this and that.
I think a Linux box is well suited for newbie users with straightforward needs like browsing, email, etc.
hey, my 73 year old mum is also on ubuntu 8.04. the pc is an old 380mb ram machine which was previously on windows 2000 – it does not even have usb cables. main reason for ubuntu is the auto updates (for all software on the repository).
If you need to run MS office you don’t need MS office.
There’s OpenOffice and NeoOffice (OS X) for a start.
All you need is a suite that can save in MS formats.
Maybe not even that if Office comes to accept OpenDoc formats (I don’t know if it does, I use NeoOffice)
There are instances where you might still need Office (Access, Outlook, and I’ve yet to find something better than Excel which is sad). But I agree otherwise (heck even Google Docs is an option).
If the only thing anybody wants to run on Windows is MSOffice, then they are already in deep trouble. Office alternatives are already good enough to replace most of what people want in an office word processor/spreadsheet/presentation program. The only big drawback for Google’s entry in that area is the privacy/trust issue, but there is Open Office, which runs on just about any OS. A couple of years ago, OO wasn’t ready for prime time, but it’s getting really close — and for most things, I prefer it to MS’s offerings. Especially at the price.
The user interface on some popular Linux distros is also getting good enough to whittle away at Windows in general.
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http://www.chl-tx.com Thanks to the Chicago Politician with the Blank Resume, my business is booming.
Although this scenario seems likely to occur at some point, you have to remember that the people who read and comment on this blog are on the bleeding edge of the technology industry, they are not Joe Schmo Ohio. Joe Schmo Ohio makes up a much larger percentage of computer users than Tech Crunch readers.
This is a really stupid article. Mac may continue to slowly gain some market share, but Windows is not going anywhere for a long time. And Linux is NEVER going to catch on mainstream.
The problem with these tech blogs is people think too techie. You’re stuck in your own vacuum. The majority of normal users can’t really imagine going out and buying a computer that is not Windows based.
Oh… and because TechCrunch always seems to need reminding of this also… normal people don’t use Twitter either.
MSFT is here to stay.
Thank you jason for inserting some *reality* into the discussion. I’ve listened far too long to linux fanboys claiming they are going to “pwn” Microsoft with their downright user-hostile OS. When was the last time anyone’s Grandma used the command line on purpose?
You need to do a little research before you comment on something you obviously know very little about. On the vast majority of home user oriented linux distro’s there is very little command line use at all. I use linux on all my boxes and have not used the command line in ages. Linus is as much “point and click” as windows. It is by far a superior os. Every peice of hardware I have works great on linux and it was picked up out of the box. The modern linux kernel is an amazing piece of code. Microsofts stranglehold on pc users is a result of strong armed tactics and less than honest market place practices that border on downright dishonesty. Microsoft has in effect created a dumbing effect on pc users (especially home pc users) that stifle real learning of just what a pc is. Linux is not perfect but I will take it over any windows os any day. Just the reduced threat of virus infection alone is worth the use of it. Get real folks. Microsoft has gotten there last dollar from me.
Ubuntu is a great example but getting the screen resolution changed on my graphics card which wasn’t supported was a pain (my wireless card was also not supported). When hardware vendors take it seriously and give decent drivers I’d go to it in a heartbeat for my work computer. Until then I’ll stick to it being my server.
Hear, hear!
Granted this is a tech blog, and geek tunnel vision is to be expected. However, when extrapolating to the mass market, it is silly to assume the mainstream sees computing the same way geeks do.
Microsoft is definitely in a bad position. One day, all computing devices will be netbooks, mobiles or web-enabled TVs.
The OS will be a small, cheap piece of software (which will still be dominated by Windows, but not as profitable as today). The most important piece of software will be the browser. However, entry barriers are low in that space- anyone can write a browser, and some good ones are free (i won’t mention names). So MS will not make money from IE, even though it will always retain significant market share (Windows Mobile is performing respectably).
MS will just have to shift away from Operating systems to software that people actualy use to do stuff. Like Office. And accounting software (a boat MS missed), CRM, that sort of thing. And it has to be web-based. And of course web advertising management (another boat they missed in favour of Google).
I admit my bias towards MSFT. With that in mind, I have to agree face some reality. MS is moving itself to the web Live Services, Azure, Win7 and Office. So MS is moving itself into a position to deal with the Google. I think they have some strengths there.
I don’t believe MS will be a monopoly in a hundred years as everything changes in time, but don’t expect that dominance to end or even seriously erode within the next decade.
The web is not everywhere. The speed of the net is not enough yet to make seamless interactions just like your PC. Moore’s (sp?) law is still working and Intel and AMD have a vested interest in that box and monitor in front of you.
Also, I work for a company that deals with “business applications”, like CAD, CAM, CAE & PLM. These are multi-billlon dollar industries and companies that live on the cutting edge…. They are all moving to Sharepoint and MS technologies (.NET, Office).
So remember to separate “consumer” and “business”… When you think about this.
Stu
I appreciate that Windows isn’t likely going anywhere any time soon… in fact that’s the first sentence of the article. This is more of a thought experiment, what if Windows suddenly were rendered inoperable or unpopular.
Jason, I disagree. I am Joe Schmo Ohio and installed Linux after my Windows PC died and I found my recovery CD too scratched to use. I just wasn’t going to spend $200 on XP for my old PC, and after a couple weeks really needed access to my data and the ability to do simple things like check email. I’ve used it for 2 years and actually have found that I like it a lot better.
I’m not so much the techie fanboy as I am a business person though. For me, it was a $200 cost savings vs. the XP retail box. PC vendors are experimenting with Linux these days because most distributions are free, a $50 savings over OEM licensing. As long as people can do what they want, that’s fine.
A lot of it really is just marketing. People have to retrain themselves a bit going to different releases of Windows, the same thing would be true if Linux was heavily marketed by PC manufacturers.
I think part of the point though is that this isn’t just about PC’s. Windows obviously has the lion’s share of the market in that realm and while it will erode over time, its not like they’re going anywhere. However, more people will do more of their basic apps over phones and tween devices. I’m getting to see that in myself for the first time with a new Blackberry. Most smartphones have their own OS that is based on some distribution of Linux. People don’t care that Linux is on it, they care that they can get to their email while on the train.
What a bunch of bull. Linux is one of the reasons that microsoft is laying off up to 5000 employees this year. The fact is that linux is easier than ever to install, maintain, etc. Oh yeah it is many times more stable than windows ever thought it could be. Linux will be mainstream. It is already getting there now via pc’s, internet appliances, cell phones, imbedded devices etc and we all know about linux’s presence on the server scene. Your comments are spoken like a true micosoft fanboi. What a bunch of bull.
Spoken like a true Linux fanboi. Lolz. And actually I’d blame their online sector for the layoffs. Their server division is making a decent profit and Linux has yet to make any head room in the consumer PC market (I’m not counting cell phones here)… To be honest, I’d give more credence to the browser as an OS than Linux taking over at this point (too many years of people hearing that it’s difficult to use even if it isn’t at this point.) I will say that those browsers may run on Linux though, so you might have that to hold onto.
You’re absolutely right, but only because the majority of application developers write code for Windows and most at a reasonable cost and because the foothold that Microsoft has established is so great, especially with regard to the business world.
Also, if people use MS O/S’s and Apps at work they are very likely to use them at home, mostly because of familiarity but also for document compatibility reasons.
As to compatibility: I know some people will want to dispute this, but Open Office docs are not 100% compatible with MS Office docs and vice versa. In business, reliability is very important. Even if a stigma exists (that may not be true), the masses will follow. All it takes is a techie that a large group of people believe in.
I hope Windows will be replaced by a more superior OS in the future. After 20 years of Windows systems, I think people are ready for a change.
Also, the market needs to be more competitive. Microsoft provides software to 90% of worldwide PC users – this doesn’t have to be. Apple and Linux are ok, but we need more choice.
I can tell you voted for Obama
I agree with the LEGO analogy, kind of… not really, but nothing else. Windows or MinWin, Linux or uClinux, Icky kernel OSX, Android as someone mentions in the comment?! (what Google Juice did you drink?) L4 (or derivative (L4sec)), TinyOS, FORTH (Built-in-OS aka BIOS): Individually they all fill a niche.
The problem is in intercommunication, ie. the protocols. The main players here when it comes to improving intercommunication and translation to machine language (which is mainly what operating systems do; talk to the hardware abstracting it away) are the cross-platform virtual machines: The CLR(Mono), JVM, LLVM, C (hiccup).
Practically everything else can be considered an application. It’s in these that we ARE seeing LEGO-like modularity occuring with big areas of change recently in the Dynamic Language Runtimes and cross-language intercommunications.
The rest just comes down to how modular one has to structure the interface of applications to meet demand. This is a given requirement of market applications. It’s only because the market has moved from operating systems towards embedded devices that modularisation is accelerating to meet demand. The VMs are the top (OSs) and bottom (Devices) meeting in the middle.
It’s when you extrapolate that out further, to what comes AFTER, is where it gets interesting, and I’m not going to tell you that, because that would be spoiling the surprise.
Interesting. Thanks for that – and intercommunication and interoperability are going to HAVE to get a lot better.
nice article! good comments for the current os marketing.
O RLY?
well. i see what you try to do with the article. but then there is the truth that Windows already runs on all kinds of devices most people don`t know.
here is a good example list but these are not all:http://www.windowsfordevices.com/articles/AT5422326956.html
There are 3 projects for devices. you have Windows CE (from what Windows Mobile is built on). CE just reached 6.0 and the first high profile project using it is the Meizu M8.
but CE is also what powers the Zune for that matter. many think it also powers the Xbox and Xbox 360. but no xbox 1 and xbox 360 run on a Windows 2000 derived OS.
Then you have SPOT and .NET Compact Framework for when you need simple operational appliances and that run on watches, coffee machines, toasters, gps devices, etc. and since you bring it up. CE is also now on fridges.
in terms of TV and Top Boxes you can find a lot of them running MS Embedded TV (my cable box runs on this) and Mediaroom.
And if you look at the Internet being the way there is the Software Plus Services model and the Software as a Service model. both already being covered by Windows Live, Office Live, Microsoft Online and Windows Azure.
and if you look beyond that part. you have projects like MS Auto, MS robotics and MS surface already making strides.
So that argument of Microsoft being only in the present with Windows for the desktop and server is not accurate at all.
I’m no open source or Apple fanboy, but currently, Microsoft’s web services suck big time. Office Live, Windows Live, Live search, are all absolute $hit.
I hope they improve, because I’d like to run my business entirely off the web, and Microsoft is my provider of choice. But right now, all their web software services are so atrociously bad, it’s clear Microsoft still doesn’t get the web. I hope that changes in future.
“Microsoft’s web services suck big time. Office Live, Windows Live, Live search, are all absolute $hit.”
What’s wrong with them?
Slow, buggy, lacking features, not user-friendly, poorly integrated with other MS services, variable quality amongst services, very fragmented offerings, zero technical support…should I go on?
Well. then why you don`t use something else?..
Fair points. I think its probably truer to say that people will still be using some derivation of Windows all over the place – they just won’t actually know it. Same goes for Linux (e.g. I think I’m right i saying that Virgin Atlantic’s in-flight entertainment system runs on Linux – that’s just one example)
What those derivations will be…I have absolutely no idea!
Good thoughtful article.
-Jamie
i was a pc/dos/win user for 15 years, and for many years i had the wrong idea that Macs are overpriced piece o crap, but 4 years ago i switched to Macs for the simple reason that i can’t take it anymore. I use computers in my work extensively and windows is totally unreliable when comes to deadlines. There is always something, from blue screens to crashes and viruses. Since i switch to Mac all these frustration is gone. I will never use a pc/win again, even under torture! If all people would use Macs this world would be much safer and peaceful, there would be no more people smashing keyboards on funny flicks on youtube.
Of course! — If we all switch to Macs, “global warming” [which is neither] would go away, polar bears would survive and peace would descend on earth with abundant love for everyone…
PLEASE!!!!!
just read your reply again and look at yourself, you are a agree men in denial… and i rest my case
As far as the viruses go, whatever OS is in vast usage, it will face this problem.
Ever wondered why a crash in your Android based G1 arise the expression: “Hey look, my G1 just rebooted, sweeeet!”
Whereas a crash in Windows gets a lot different response? thats bcz ur using Windows for something important and it died on u.
This will be the same for any other OS. Just wait for the time when any other OS takes the dominance over Windows and you’ll see a hell lot of viruses and crashes in them as well.
Devin,
I think the answer is Google. Not because Google is going to try to replace Microsoft. It’ll just do to them what Microsoft did to IBM with mainframes. They’ll make the question of OS on the desktop irrelevant. Already today, it’s matters much less if you’re running OSX, Windows or Linux. You spend most of the day in the browser, have a reasonable Office Suite and it’s really mostly a question of personal preference. It’ll only be more so as the migration to web based apps continues. There’ll be exceptions like heavy graphics programs or games, but for the most part the OS is becoming less and less important.
No more BIG OS.
Just like the TV, we all access the web. We do everything on the web.
I don’t want to do everything on the web. You cannot tell who is watching and security is only security if you do not think you are secure.
And sometimes I can’t access the web. Just as sometimes I cannot get mobile phone coverage.
How can I get the feed for techcrunch without this crunchgear garbage?
There is no reason to replace a OS. The normal computer will need a Big OS to run stunning applications. It is true that most of your data will be stored somewhere else or accessible. You know, there is no reason to run every application online, because this limits the software power. It will be a combination, a modul system, but this doesn’t mean that OS will be away.
@Devin Coldewey as you self mentioned in the article I agree with you that fact that Vacume left by Microsoft will be imposible to fill ,may be Google come up with something as they surprised us with their browser Google Chrome which got so much attention by the geeks.
the question here is how much has microsoft helped/hurt the it industry by existing. Was it a good thing that it existed , during the early stages of it evolution , with such a huge market share , thus monopolistic control or was it bad a thing in a way that it denied the free market economic principles thus preventing the industry in evolving in a more free “democratic” way but also potentionaly very liberal and extremely fragmented
Why worry. As long as there is a consumer need and a quality product no company and no person need worry about disappearing nor not having an OS to use.
oz
It’s going to take years of investment to switch out of WIndows. The cost to enterprises would be huge. I see the switch being driven more on the device level. I see a lot of fragmentation, with VMs taking on the role that a traditional OS does now. The pressure to standardize on OS is driven by developer investment. If you don’t have a single dominant player then those developers will abstract it out which is the role of a VM.
So the next dominant platforms are the VMs around now. Java, .NET (including Silverlight), Flash (Air/Flex) and HTML (JavaScript etc).
The better VMs will be the ones versatile enough to make use of all the device’s features and support for native extensions. In a way Microsoft has done this with WPF and Silverlight.
“Microsoft is more than a company, it’s a way of thinking about computing.”
HAHAHAHAHHAHAHAH
How much you got paid from M$ for posting such garbage?
So have any of you guys actually seen Microsofts cloud offering ? It’s far more polished then anything else out there at the moment.
They will probably start selling it into corporates who can host it internally and make a fortune.
Hmm…even as a self-confessed MSFT fan myself I can’t say I agree with that Steve.
Their offerings all have potentail but polished is not the adjective I would use to describe them – the good stuff (Mesh and Azure) is all still in beta; I wouldn’t call that polished.
-Jamie
Miscrosoft will still be alive for years, since most user like windows so much. The difference is in interactivity, Mac is created based on design need, Linux for high end user (need more knowledge and skill to use). We can see from the start of installation to manage files and program. Simplicity and ease to use will take more part in this business.
Every time I hear this “what will the computer market look like after Microsoft is gone” question (and I have been hearing it for 20 years now), the supposition always makes the same central flaw. There is all ways this assumption that since most people, and more specifically most people who write articles, never do anything but edit word documents, brows the web, check email, and maybe entertain themselves, then that is all anyone will eventually need, so a thin client will handle it.
Here is the thing, what is Google going to provide that will allow someone to run their CNC mill from a browser? Will it ever make sense to edit video over the web? Why would you want to upload 5GB of photos to a website just to review them and decide which ones you want to keep, and which ones are junk, and how would you get those RAW files from the camera to the browser in the first place without a dedicated driver?
What Microsoft provides, more than Apple or Linux, is a pervasive base framework to which anyone can easily target their software or devices. There is nothing happening in the computer world that has in any way lessened the desire for that from either users, or vendors. The appeal of Windows has nothing to do with usability, or marketing, or any sort of philosophy. It is simply a matter of the fact that most computer buyers want to be able to connect whatever hardware they want, be it a web cam, embroidery machine, 3D printer, laser cutter, microphone, video card, digital camera, or USB seat warmer, and know it will work with their machine. That is the draw of Windows. Anyone offering any hardware product (other than Apple) will make it their first priority to get it working on Windows, then at some later point worry about Mac, and then maybe never worry about Linux.
When you are talking about just checking email and browsing the web, sure you can easily be fooled into believing some platform independent fantasy, but when you start talking about connecting devices, look at how many vendors aren’t even willing to support all versions of Windows (like x64) much less Mac or Linux. Do you really see a day when those companies say “oh what the hell, sure will make drivers for 10 different OSs?” The vendors just aren’t going to do it. I don’t think any of them really have a vested interest in supporting Microsoft in specific, but they all do have a very real financial interest in seeing one dominant platform, to simplify their development. I don’t see any talk about open standards, web services, twitter, and social computing changing that.
Best comment, too many assume that the browser is the center of everyones computing experience.
Try editing HD video, playing games that fully leverage your hardware, recording multi-track music, etc, etc.
Personally I code on Windows and deploy on linux. There is much more to computing than the browser.
I don’t think I really said anything to that effect, but I do agree with you. Browser as operating system? Not likely. I don’t trust the cloud that much.
Great comment.
It looks like TCP\IP is here to stay… Why can’t I have all appliances in my house\ business (camera, printer,TV) connected over 1Gbs Ethernet and there is some OS-agnostic controller on the network controlling all of them?
I like what Ari wrote: “geek tunnel vision” — He is too kind. I would add ignorance, inexperience, and much more. It is also intellectual laziness and the lack of desire to actually learn something useful.
Yes, Microsoft-Intel represents 90% of the global personal/business computing, and it is not going to change much just because some geeks want it — Change into what? the Google/Android solution? Ask any engineer/developer if they do serious coding on the Android or the iPhone… Give me a break.
Devin’s article is interesting, but his premises [and predictions] fall into the “futurists” realm, who are wrong 99% of the time…
I think personally that every person who uses the Windows OS even the biggest Microsoft fanboy is ready to take a chance with a new OS, the mention at the beginning of this comment thread of using Android prompts me to consider how computing will evolve via that platform, I certainly agree with how Devin classes Microsoft as more then just an OS maker, but realistically can the closed system bubble be destroyed completely so that open source developers can take the place of the “visioanries” of Microsoft, the computer in every home has been and gone, it is here and now that we see Bill Gate’s vision in play but whether Microsoft adopts a unified set of tools to break out of Windows on the desktop, for instance the way they are moving Office onto the web then we can see a future after Microsoft’s desktop reign comes to an end!
Another deluded, drug induced retard speaks his ignorant mind…..yawn.
Well there were computer’s before Microsoft and as long as people still have power there will be computers long after Microsoft. I would guess if Windows is no longer a Cash cow for Microsoft it would be open sourced.
Its funny, with Virtual Computing software such as VMWare, and Parrels makes the personal computer more of a machine that manages many computers. For example, lately I use a laptop, to log into another high powered computer, or many computers, or a Cloud of computers. With this ability, the operating system is less relevant, then the software they run on.
Without Ballmers’ FUD and MS bribing corrupt governments (and the ISO), it would be Linux FTW. Seriously: Microsofts’ actions in cash-strapped third world countries are no different than a drug dealer giving out the first hits for free.
TechCrunch/CrunchGear/Arrington/Crew.
You are not in touch with reality.
This is a topic that pops up every few years when another platform makes its entrance into the workplace/marketplace, the debate ensues, and…. Microsoft is still the dominant platform.
I’ll believe it when I see it. We said it with Linux, and now Android…
time will tell.
Post Microsoft, we won’t need search either. Or Macs.
All we need is Seesmic.
I’m just waiting to record from my Canon straight to Seesmic so I can get rid of computers altogether.
Microsoft já era brothers
-2 for being a troll article
-1 for providing no insights
-1 for being a fantasy popular mechanics “what the future is going to look like” article
-1 for thinking that the future is going to turn out the way YOU want it to turn out
If the future is going to ruled by giant robots does it really matter OS they are running? Or scenario B, when aliens take over the world, I am sure they will bring their own operating system.
We will stop using our computers to do everything and do everything with an appliance. Examples are GPS’s, photo frames, and more. As for the more processor-intensive applications like gaming and 3d design, i think the answer is thin clients with ALL the processing done on the server side, then compressing that output and sending it to the client, which just decodes it. It’s like AMD is doing with OTOY, which lets you run graphics-intensive apps on phones and other low-powered clients.
I enjoy reading Tech Crunch despite the fact that most of the information presented is either beyond me, is of little use or has no real world application for me.
I find the occasional jewel after visiting numerous new websites with programs that either do not work as hyped or just complicate things more.
I do not twitter. I closed my facebook account as it was useless. I was the only one I knew on Facebook. I still have a myspace account account though I only go there to communicate with a few people that don’t go anywhere else.
What I observe is much duplication and fragmentation. Programs that most people I know will never even become aware of.
I moved from a dos shell to windows because I had to. It wasn’t long before I replaced most of the windows programs I used with free programs that were either faster, better or simpler.
Since switching to a mac it’s pretty much the same. I use free programs that are either faster, better or simpler and work with office and keep me from having to use office(I do cop to using IPHOTO).
I have neither the time nor the resources to have my own IT department every time I have a problem.
Getting information, processing the information and transmitting information quickly and easily is what I need to enable me to spend time doing “other” things.
Browsing lately has become an exercise in frustration as it takes more time to sift through the garbage that is returned as something I am supposedly looking for.
And I’m probably a techie wanna be!
Most people I know (even those that spend all day on computers at work) have never twittered, will never twitter and have no desire to know what a twitter is.
And this includes many young people who buy the cheapest machine they can afford. Take pictures, watch you tube, use e-mail, pay their bills on line, throw up a my space/facebook page
and play some games.
Most do not use half the programs their computers come equipped with.
The person(s) who understand this and build an operating system that makes it easier for the non-techies of the world to operate in a techie world will win. rc
The problem with Microsoft is that they believe that the only revenues which they can ever earn over the internet is through Search and Advertising.
But with more and more Companies using Web Services Online then through a PC O/S, Microsoft needs to realise that they are in a great posistion to truly exploit this future ‘Work in the Web’ Marketplace.
All they need to need to do is sort out what type of services they wish to run in their ‘Work in the Web’ Marketplace Business Model – and their loss of the PC O/S Marketplace, especially their revenues from Windows and Office, will be conter balanced by the rise of their new ‘Work in the Web’ O/S and the paid services that they can offer there.
There is no point in Microsoft developing all of these magic tricks over the Web, if at the end of the day there is no final product.
Interesting article but there’s always irony in these types of articles and their posts.
If you live or work in a relatively new building, the chances are your building was designed and drafted on a Windows or PC-based system.
If you get on an airliner or private jet, somewhere (if not all) along the line of your flight-planning, weather etc. (i.e your life!) would be in the hands of windows or PC-based systems. (Not the actual aircraft but some of the systems that contribute to you and your family’s safe passage!)
If you or any of your family have needed medical assistance or hospital treatment, chances are you owe part of the process of diagnosis and treatment to Windows or PC-based systems at some point along the line.
If you operate or are involved in a charitable organisation helping the poorest, most deprived or otherwise prosecuted or isolated groups of our global community, the chances are somewhere at the backbone of your operation/logistics is/are windows or pc-based systems.
If you or your family ever took a passport photo in a photo kiosk/booth – chances are it was controlled by windows.
If you are laid-off in the recession and hit tough times financially but your kids need new computing equipment chances are common-sense will dictate you procure a windows or pc-based system without any loss in the quality of your life or computing experience.
I could go on. But my point is simple and is really a question.
I believe most would consider themselves intelligent, knowledgeable people perhaps even with a respect for humanity. If this is the case why are none of these things ever discussed by those who purport ‘to know’?
To limit discussions of technology to browsers and desktops would suggest Microsoft is way ahead of all of us. They had a dream to make technology liberating to the masses. They delivered on that dream(whether you agree with their methods or not!).
Whether we like it or not Microsoft continues to shape our world and influence our lives whether we see it or not and possibly more than any other tech company.
I love my Mac and love my PC for they allow me to do what once upon a time could only be a dream. It depresses me to see people descend into pseudo-intellectual arguments about platforms as it would suggest that while technology has evolved our minds are still stuck in Mac vs. Windows 95 mentality.
How come no one talks about Apple ‘borrowing’ the GUI from Xerox?
These are all true statements. It’s been said already, but I’ll repeat it again.
My AT&T Uverse service runs on Windows CE. It’s a great system, with the ability to view any television shows recorded on one DVR on any of the televisions in my home. Some people think Microsoft can’t innovate, but this is one area where I believe MS is way ahead of the industry.
My GPS reciever runs on Windows CE. Works really great!
The XBox 360 is a great platform for viewing online movies (via Netflix) as well as playing games both online and off.
I had a medical procedure done last year where I had to spend the night in the hospital. Every person I had contact with had a Windows Mobile powered scanning device to scan my wrist identification bracelet.
I work for a very large insurance company (50,000 employee’s just about every one has a Windows desktop), which has built a large portfolio of Mission critical applications that will only run on Windows.
Even the employee’s at the Apple store use a Windows powered wireless device to pay for purchases away from the register.
Although Windows and Office are cash cows for Microsoft. They have their foot in so many area’s of our lives, that I think it’s futile to believe that they are just standing still on Windows and Office.
Microsoft will be like IBM. Most people don’t realize just how much IBM is a part of your life, but I’m willing to bet most utility, insurance, credit card, and phone bills are still tallied and printed by very old COBOL programs running on IBM Mainframe computers.
How come no one ever talks about the technology allowing freedom of speech/expression and economic development in the poorest and least democratic parts of the world are windows-based pc’s? (e.g think persecuted anti-communists in China using blogs from internet cafes/laptops mostly running Windows!?)
after spending 3 last months getting to learn various distros of Linux and installing it on variety of laptops and desktops, I see that Windows really is a paid membership card to a “hardware drivers club”. That’s it. The supported platform that everybody has drivers for. The Linux, while so advanced and free, is not going anywhere without drivers. Ubuntu is moving in this direction with automatic install of fglrx. But fglrx still sux compared to Windows ATI drivers.
One word answer to the title question: Better
;)
Please don’t encourage the pluralisation (maybe a real word…) of LEGO into LEGOS!
I know you’re using it differently here, as a portmanteau, but it shouldn’t be encouraged!
Sorry, that battle’s already been lost – like Kleenex and Frisbee.
How sad; No-one who’s commented in this entire article seems to get the big picture. Several came close, but still, no cigar.
It’s not about Microsoft. It’s not about Linux. It’s not about a way of thinking about computing, and it’s definitely not about America vs. the world.. you’ve all got it wrong.
It’s about the meat puppet on YOUR SIDE of the keyboard, silly! Learn that the user (and I don’t mean that in just the “Joe the Accountant” sense, either!) is going to drive the demand.
I suspect we’ll never see a lack of demand for the sort of products that Micro$haft produces.
I also suspect that we’ll never see a lack of demand for Asspole’s iPod interfaces, remixes of BSD, and other unnovative (intentionally mis-spelled, thankyouverymuch!) functionality.
What the user wants, the user gets. That’s where Linux came from, and while I admire the *nix community for its valiant efforts, it simply cannot compete with the funding that big business can throw at a widespread computing problem.
For those who would like to throw stones.. my glass house has Windows XP Pro, XPpro64bit, Win7, Ubuntu 8.10, SLES10, Tiger… I can hardly contain myself waiting to see if Palm can make a comeback with their Pre, love what HTC is doing with Winblows mobile.. And my ‘work’ house includes i5os, MVS, Tandem, OSF/1, a whole bunch of other *nix variants and Windows v.whatever, etc etc… I am platform and OS agnostic. Truly.
Start seeing the computing environment.. as nothing more than an enabler to what the MEAT environment wants to accomplish. Then, you’ll recognize that big business, while it doesn’t matter, DOES matter.
Think about that last paragraph long and hard.. Those of you, those visionary few who can grasp the thread of the idea I’ve put out there, will see as much or more success as I’ve had. In a down economy, I still have customers coming to me asking for both LAMP and MS-centric website solutions.. integration efforts between a disparity of platforms (anyone have a simpler method of translation from ASCII to EBCDIC short of a high-priced ETL tool?), yada yada yada..
Okay, enough ranting. I feel like spending some time with my 9mm in the backyard, aerating a few targets!
I really don’t want to take the time to assemble an a kernel, device drivers, anti virus, firewall, browser, and everything else that goes into an OS. I am perfectly happy running Vista on a quad core box. It has everything and runs just fine. I will get 7 for my daughter when she heads to college. I am upgrading my house server to an atom 330 running XP. It is currently a Pentium 2 running Windows 2000. I like to dabble with OSes for fun, but nothing replaces Windoz or a Mac when I need to get something done.
Didn’t they used to call that OS CPM or CCPM? Modular, built up depending on the hardware installed, basic interface between the program space and hardware. I guess it’s true what’s old is new again.
A couple of observations. First, most don’t remember what prompted Unix–the monolithic mainframes of the day. The CLI was a privileged, integrated part of the OS–as was the database (the OS knew about all the different record types that could be used, for instance.) The concept of the Unix kernel (and embodied in LInux today) was only put critical resources in the kernel; everything that could be was moved to user space. People had a devil of a time understanding the Unix concept that a file was just a stream of bytes–the OS simply didn’t CARE what was in the file. You want locking? Fine, lock from byte X to byte Y. You want a command interpreter? Pick any one you want–sh, ksh, csh, etc. It’s just another program. This was revolutionary at the time.
Next, people don’t CARE if they’re running Windows, or Linux, or OS X, unless they’re IT themselves or afficionados. People want to get their tasks done, and most don’t want to learn anything more about the computer than they absolutely have to in order to accomplish their tasks.
I’ve worked on Unix since around 1980, Minix in the early ’90s, Linux since the mid-90s. I’ve worked on CP/M, then DOS in the early 80’s, and all versions of WIndows since. (I’m going to skip all the other environments–RT, mainframe, mini, etc. I’ve been doing this for over 30 years.) I don’t exclusively use–or recommend–any one particular environment for all purposes. And that’s the way I think it should be; select the right tool for the job.
The big question, moving forward, is just what “the right tools” should be, or become.