Cisco bought Flip Video. The Peek e-mail device is outselling some smartphones and launching a new version. The wi-fi-enabled media player is fighting it out with the TV for precedence in the living room and netbooks are beating down desktops at school and in the den. Are we entering an era of simple, cheap, and cool?
After a decade of unparalleled one-upmanship – the gigahertz race, the megapixel race, the storage race – we are now hitting a wall. The devices we own are small enough, fast enough, and hold enough data to suit us now until 2012, thank you, so we’ll sit this next iteration of the Intel Xaphod chip out, thank you.
I’ll admit I missed the Flip/Peek/netbook boat but once it came into dock, disembarked its passengers, and I read about its contents in the shipping news I finally figured out what was going on. We are essentially seeing the era of web services made flesh where thin clients take content and broadcast it instantly. And the web guys love it. Take Flip, for example. I was talking to a buddy at Cisco this weekend and he said that Cisco, the heavy-duty switch and server side of Cisco, loves blogs, video sharing, and the like. The more bandwidth wasted on pictures of Chet faux-kissing a hottie the better simply because it requires a heavier network backbone. Therefore, someone like Flip is a perfect testbed for streaming video as well as a nice cash cow.
Even companies like Vizio came out of left field. While everyone else was worried about LCD vs. Plasma, Vizio tore the price of a regular TV down by 50 percent. Imagine if I told you maybe two years ago that a 42-inch LCD HD TV would cost about $700. You’d put me in the loony bin! Even Eye-Fi and Chumby understand what’s going on – you make something small, cool, and very specific and the world will beat a path to your door.
So where does that leave the CE industry? Well, it’s now a race to the bottom. Video cameras that once cost $500 will now cost about $200. Digital cameras, real ones, are approaching the $100 mark. TVs will soon drop below the $500 mark for lower-end models. And, more importantly, devices like the Peek and the Flip point to a consumer focused on the creation of web content. Whereas our parents wanted to “store” information – in the form of slides, records, tapes, and the like – this generation wants to “dump” information onto YouTube, Facebook, and the cloud. This difference is important. Previously, the old rules of media applied — in a nutshell they can be summarized by that old chestnut “The medium is the message.” The message, formerly vacation snapshots or the latest Bing Crosby, was defined by the medium onto which it was impressed. Now, the message is a free-floating, amorphous thing, and the less that gets between the consumer and the message the better — hence tools that are limited in scope and function (and price) that “just work.”
The concept of dumb tech isn’t a negative thing. It is the understanding that instead of power, people want ease-of-use. Instead of the chaotic jumble of Symbian or Windows Mobile we are enamoured by shiny buttons on the iPhone and the Pre. Instead of a 12-megapixel DSLR, most of us are happy with a camera that takes an OK picture as soon as everyone in the frame is smiling. Instead of a state-of-the-art laptop we’re happy with a lumpen mini-book running Linux. Why? Because it gets the job done more than admirably.
Chalk it up to a bad economy if you want, but I think this is a backlash. For years we’ve been saddled with wonky hardware with 400-page manuals and smartphones that could open VNC connections with NASA but couldn’t save your pictures to Flickr. The tide has turned, friends, and the dumb stuff is winning.
Dumb tech is the stage immediately before convergence, which immediately precedes new tech. All tech is dumb tech eventually, before it merges, converges and rises.
No, no – you’re thinking of bread.
Seriously, I have not left one comment on TechCrunch and out of the hundreds of articles I’ve read this comment made me laugh so hard.
Kudos!
whoa… i know kung fu!
One could argue that “dumbed down design” (3d – ok I just coined it, I think) is smart.
A way to achieve universal access to a tool is ensure that it maintains roughly two levels of use:
1) A basic level of use that even most grannies can figure out.
2) Advanced features that can be unlocked by those more in the know.
This approach to design isn’t new. It’s just being rediscovered.
Thats what she said.
Of course, if you can design the advanced features so that anyone can take advantage of them, then it’s no longer dumbed down tech. It’s a stroke of genius.
I couldn’t agree more. GREAT article!!
It isn’t dumb. It’s easy. Everyone likes easy. Flip, Peek, et al just make doing what they do easy enough for a normal person (read: non-techie) to do it.
By doing that they greatly expanded their market and gained viral word of mouth, because it was a leap forward in easiness.
It’s the same reason why Blackberry became the force in Business e-mail that it is. They did one thing, did it well, and made it easy. Did they have the best UI ever? Nope. Features? Not many. E-mail was easy enough for the CEO of company to send on the device? Yep.
More designers need to concentrate on making their designs accessible, rather than having a checklist of features.
I agree with Keith and others. “Dumb” is the wrong term. Does more features = smarter? Not necessarily. If “Smart Tech” = less revenue and lower market share, then “Smart Tech” = Dumb in my opinion
And instead of thinking about dumb vs. smart OR medium vs. message, what about:
“What does the customer want?”.
From what I’ve read about Flip Video, they changed their product to match what customers wanted. They originally had a disposable camera. Then they realized customers wanted video. They tried disposable camcorders and realized customers wanted to keep camcorders, so they stopped the disposable ones. They realized customers wanted an easy way to share video, so they have a USB dongle …. And they kept piling on features that matched what people wanted.
It took them 7 years before they got sold. I don’t think they had a strategy of “dumbed down” products from the get go. They learned what people wanted.
I agree. If you’d like to mention dumb, it should be the people who design things that nobody wants. Packing your product with as many features as you can without rethinking about the usability issues is a big mistake. We’ve seen countless products that just seemed to have so many bells and whistles but ultimately fails to make the cut. At a time like this, its even more important to focus on what features you can leave out in order to lower the price. Consumers are in the stingy period.
Most people reading and writing blogs like this have the burden of knowledge. Most “average” tech users do not. Try explaining a smartphone to your aunt or uncle. Their response is “What do you need with all of that stuff?” They still have that old black Nokia that just makes phone calls. That’s why they have not upgraded. It works.
Nobody goes broke making something that elegantly meets a “real” need. There is so much garbage out there that people will go nuts of things that are smart, simple, and effective. (Cheap doesn’t hurt either.)
Thank God Vizio came along – otherwise I definitely would never have been able to get a flatscreen! I love my 42″ that would have been WAAY more less than 5 yrs ago. Has all the same tech, but now an everyday guy can actually afford it.
You seem to have confused 2 ideas. The first is that technology gets cheaper as it matures and manufacturing scale increases.
The second is that widespread data infrastructure gives cool functionality to cheap devices.
This doesn’t mean that all consumer electronics will get cheap and dumb….though it does mean that there will be a premium on design and usability over just functionality.
Also, do you have any data to support your first paragraph: how many peek devices are being sold? I’m sure they’re outselling SOME smartphones, but which ones? I’ve NEVER seen one used by anyone. Have you?
We are moving into an era where convenience rules over sophistication. This is related to the generation Y moving into decision making positions and choose emotion over efficiency….
I think “Lazy Tech” would be more accurate.
I like “Lazy Tech.” And who says we can’t have both? Breakout the manual and prep up the $1,500 HD camcorder the day before your sister’s wedding. Grab the $89 lazy tech Flip Video from your pocket to record the backyard barbeque.
Precisely.
I disagree with this being a new phenomenon. Consumers and the market have always embraced fast and cheap tech for the average person. Photography is a great example with Kodak’s Brownie and later the Polaroid; Inferior products that reached popularity due to ease of use and low cost. And in no way did they hinder the progress of higher end development in photography.
And here’s a more recent tech example – the original Palm. It didn’t do much, but what it did do, it did well.
Dumb is the new smart.
Yeah, what Ben said.
The Flip is a great example of re-thinking a product from the ground up. Granted, they didn’t get it right, the first time, or the second time but they eventually came up with a good idea / desirable product.
The camcorder market was ripe for an easier way. Most people (used to) spend lots of money for an over-complicated camcorder that was rarely used and when it was, only a very few features were ever used.
I don’t think your argument applies to Netbooks. Netbooks are not any simpler than a regular notebook – they are smaller / cheaper.
As for cameras, sure the prices are coming down but the market is increasing for high end, more complex DSLRs.
Apple has shown a preference for products that have fewer features and are easier to use.
And you are saying it as if it is a bad thing. “dumb tech” bring it on.
Did you ever straggled with a user manual for a VCR? Can you compeer it to Flip camcorder user manual?
Usability has always been the #1 principle in Consumer Electronics design. Instead of “the tide is turning”, it’s more like technology has evolved far enough for us to push into the next phase of innovation in Usability. The next few years are gonna be very exciting for consumers.
cool
yeah
Interesting hypothesis but why hasn’t anyone questioned this deal? After a few years now, has Cisco proven they can compete in the Consumer Electronics marketplace? About 3-4 years ago, Cisco bought a Scandinavian company called KISS TECHNOLOGY, which had DVD players, LCD monitors and other devices that were all network savvy. Where are those products today? Outside of Linksys, the only thing Cisco has proven is that they can spend $590 million dollars.
Where are those products? They are Patents, they are IP, they are now assets in the portfolio. Licensing, etc etc
Make money by not making anything.
For the last several days, I have been thinking of a post about the “black box.”How does this relate? Well, convergence pulls together all of this technology into small packages that can do many things. Users don’t tend to like many things, but in certain places they do. A camera is often acceptable if the results are good enough. But remember, this is where Leica became famous. I will state that the iPhone is the first accepted black box of computing.
The simple screen manages interactions like a computer, but is much more limited in scope. It requires the software, and interface, to determine an effective use. Ocarina! Pull that out of your weirdest dreams for what a cell phone or a computer would do. The interaction level now requires thought. Why would I want a delicate control, when a big red button will get the recording rolling. We no longer record on cassettes with that odd little button that was difficult to press.
Tools like Processing, Arduino, and Javascript have combined to allow for flexible technology. Complex tools are being rejected, not because they do too much, but because they are incoherent. I remember video taping a user trying to turn on a Sony short wave radio. It was a test. There were two power switches. Why suffer through this? Simple tech is good enough for most at this stage, and they don’t require antisocial behavior to master.
The post’s argument would be more at home on Twitter than on a blog…
unfortunately, i agree with the fact that dumb tech is winning. it seems the consumer wants something that looks great, even if it can’t deliver. honestly, i’m still not that impressed with the adamo (for the price it asks anyways).
Instead of DUMB TECH, why not CHEAP TECH. The components of most of these devices are now less then half of what they were three years ago. The NetBook is still a full fledge computer. The FLIP now has an HD SKU. And the smartphone is becoming as versatile as a notebook computer was not long ago. All these devices are now under $500.
Tools that do one thing really well and are integrated into a set that accomplishes a task are the norm for us as a species. Swiss army knives and sporks are the exception, and usually found in situations where there are exceptional constraints. Most westerners still eat with a fork an spoon, and if you’re a chef you’ve got at least a few specialized knives.
I think the iPhone/gPhone are great examples of the Swiss Army Knife principle where the pocket is the constraint. Having traveled for several weeks with an iPhone as my only peephole to the ‘net, I was delighted to get back to my laptop. The camera is fine for quick snaps, but I still love my G9 when I want to capture more meaningful images. Both work much better with Flickr or Shutterfly behind them.
“For years we’ve been saddled with wonky hardware with 400-page manuals and smartphones that could open VNC connections with NASA but couldn’t save your pictures to Flickr.”
I got a good chuckle from that.
Nice read.. I really do look forward to TV’s (Monitors as well really) drop in price.
Ease of use trumps a bunch of funky options that 1% of users actually use.
remember the “olden days” when we had access (for just a minute) to that grand old “E-Machine”? Does anybody remember that one? I never had one, or even saw one, but I think all the thing did was send & receive e-mail. That’s it. Nothing fancy, morbidly simple. Something someone’s grandma could clap for joy about. Why can’t simplicity make a grand come-back? Why can’t my grandma be able to just send email without all the other hardware/software hoopla? Simple is good, right? Whatever happened to that E-Machine, anyway?
This is not just a trend in consumer electronics, but in banking, automobiles, and services. Read about how some companies “keep it simple, stupid” -
http://www.designingforhumans.com/idsa/2009/01/keep-it-simple-stupid.html
I’d go with “diverse tech.” An example of one: I enjoy photography, will soon step up to a prosumer SLR and deal with all the upsides and downsides that go with it.
I am intrigued by videos, don’t want to tote an SLR around to shoot ‘em, want to spend low to have a go at video, might step up to a better video camera if my interest in video gets near or beyond my interest in photography.
The Flip and similar make a lot of sense for anyone curious about video who doesn’t want to do it from what’s primarily a still camera, and of course those who simply content w. Flip-level quality–ya know, the great unwashed masses who don’t visit this site or similar sites.
How can that be bad?
“Entering”? Hello? Apple?
Dumb = Easy
…wow that was simple.