As we approach the potential hour of power this June when Steve Jobs will come down from his mountain fortress bearing the new iPhone, this time with magnetometer and 3.2-megapixel camera or whatever, I keep wondering something: Will anyone buy it?
Under a decade ago it wasn’t unusual for folks to buy the latest Nokia – one after the other – simply because of the feature set offered by each subsequent model. In about 2002 or so, you’d see folks jumping from the black and white screen to the color screen to the VGA camera to the 1-megapixel to the pseudo-smartphone. Those days are gone.
Apple owns about 17% of the smartphone market. Early adopters could feasibly buy a phone a year. But are incremental upgrades between the iPhone 3G and the iPhone ]I[ or whatever it will be called enough to convince the 30% of iPhone 3G buyers who switched to AT&T just for the phone – mostly from the Moto RAZR – to upgrade?
Apple is obviously convinced they will. They’re buying up flash memory and planning on making about 1006 million new iPhones this year. Heck, they’re even throwing a tablet into the mix. My only concern is this: once the Apple story gets old (Amazing UI! Great features! It’s Apple!), will the feature phones on the low end get more attention. In tough times it’s hard to drop three bills on a new iPhone, no matter how many magnetometers it contains. Your thoughts?
there are loyal apple fan boys out there that would buy anything new from apple. im not an apple fan boy but if it comes out with a multi-core processor, i would definitely buy one. i know a lot of you think that its just a fad but when you require optimum performance and a manageable UI, i say, why not.
Well, some people just want first dibs on the first iPhone so they can sell on eBay for premium.
Some people line up for store openings too. They just want the free t-shirts and stuff.
It is physically the limit that the iphone offers biggest screen for any handheld phone.
Maybe if i don’t have to use AT&T…
After having my iPhone for 8 months, I’d line up … to punch Apple in the face.
I couldn’t help laughing out loud to this comment. I love it. I don’t have an iPhone myself as I’m a heavy business user, and despise the virtual keyboard. Currently I’m using a Nokia e71, but will be buying a Pre when they’re released.
I would not bother, Pre will get my vote. The fact that iPhone can sync from only one computer is inexcusable!. I have 3 Macs and 2 PCs I use and I would like 3 aggregated instances of content in the iPhone. This is just not possible and never will from Apple!.
Probably not the best time to release a new iPhone though I’m sure the Apple fans who adore and worship Apple will get it.
I love my iPhone and take it to bed every night. I will definately line up to buy the new one. It sounds so cool in the specs and I know Apple will surprise us with even more.
For those iPhone users still on the first generation iPhone, I think it makes sense to upgrade. The cost is more managable, and the feature set diff between the first gen and this new phone appear to be well worth an upgrade. In addition, I think sales will continue to impress those in doubt. It’s not the end all be all phone, but it is a really, really good phone.
I agree with regard to 1st gen apple phone users. I still love my 1st gen phone — what’s been great about his phone vs. so many other apple products is that it’s more of an updatable vessel, and updates and new releases haven’t made it seem so passe. The problems with 3G didn’t hurt feeling like what I had was working just fine too. And apps like Pandora help not feel like 8G of music is constricting. I might upgrade, but not sure. I do love what I have. And saving for the touch tablet might be the way to go…
http://www.d-e-f-i-n-i-t-e-l-y.com/
I think much of this is going to depend on the new firmware with its features, but also I think they are going to offer a price drop, Apple knows there is gold in them hills o’ apps
Shouldnt that be 100million /8 smartphones…
Gigabits and Gigabytes…
what?
He’s saying they bought 100 million 8gigaBIT flash memory chips, not 8gigaBYTE you need 8 8gigabit flash chips to make 8gigabytes of memory.
They’re not thinking of making 100 million iPhones, they’ve only sold 20 million iPhones since June 2007 (It was 17 million in March of this year so… I’m just rounding it up)
gotcha. now i see what’s up. thanks for the catch
cool.. thx
will post in detail next time myself!
I think this post is very bare and it seems that it was made out of boredom- I think if you posted this after the release of the 3rd gen iPhone with more information it would be great.
Totaly agree. Story getting old and how rich you are to catch-up with all these craziness?
A new iphone is coming already? Wow, these things come out fast.
I can’t wait to see what they’re coming up with. As more touch screen phones come out and more apps come out for windows mobile and other phones, the iphone will become just like another touch screen phone out there. Unless they come up with the all in one iphone that works as a mp3 player, camera, and has both windows and mac os x leopard loaded. Ohh, also a satellite phone at the same time. A nuclear power iphone, etc. these things are possible, so we just have to wait and see.
If there is no money constraint, and if the new iphone whatever is truly amazing (better than 3g), i would switch. Difficult economy tought everyone to be cautious. iPhone 3g is very good enough for me at the moment, although there are bugs.
First gen iPhone contract with AT&T will be over, I am sure a lot of people will get a new 2 year contract along with a brand new iPhone.
Did a high school kid up past his bed time hack crunchgear?
yeah.
Forget the iSpeculation, Space Quest FTW!
glad you liked it. that’s spacequest ]I[ incidentally. My favorite use of the bracket keys ever.
aye, aye, SQIII ftw:) keep *these* mashups coming:)
what an amazing game.
It would be nice if it had more RAM and a faster processor. There are even apps out there that tell you to restart your phone before using (even though the iPhone limits the total amount of memory they are allowed to use). This is unacceptable given how inexpensive RAM is today, even for mobile devices.
The new features don’t sound too exciting. Yes … more RAM/new processor – that would be something – but only for the people who know how slow this thing is with multiple applications on the memory.
I don’t see the killer app/feature for now – and nothing that couldn’t be done by a software upgrade …
uh, it only runs one app at a time. y’all crack me up experts who don’t even have one.
Have the same question as Matt (above).
3.2M camera, video recording… talk about a “feature set” in 2009. That’s pretty much very 2006
I didn’t buy the first iPhone because it was piss-poor. I didn’t buy the iPhone 3G because I was still stuck in the contract for my Nokia, which I had to take out when I didn’t buy the first iPhone.
I’m now out of contract, and needing a new phone. That’s be the new iPhone, then. So they’ll sell one, at the very least.
I’m sort of in the same boat, my contract expired a couple months ago, and I’ve been debating between getting something nice now, or waiting.
If you can wait 2 more months for a phone, why not just hold out for the nokia N97. 5MP Flash camera, 48 GB of storage, 16 x 9 display for video, and qwerty……. Unless this new iPhone inlcudes a flux capacitor, I doubt it will compare.
Since 10 years I used nokia, never lasting more than a year – hardware or software problems …
than I saw apple’s keynote and iPhone – great
but as I make my life in Thailand, I could not buy an official iPhone here at that time yet, so I got the N95 in april 2007.
Now 2 years later it is still working (had ‘only’ 2 times software problems)…
but I bought also the 1st generation ipod Touch
I have to tell you that I am totally satisfied with this enjoyable hardware and software,
so much that I kicked off my PC and bought an iMac and now I am really happy with APPLE and hungry for the coming iPhone because I am absolutely sure that it will be AMAZING !!!!
Nice old-school theme, specially the Apple ][ type logo. Only if the iPhone were as rugged…
Only if I can use it on T-Mobile…not switching to AT&T. While I’m an Apple fan…I’m very happy with my SE P1i and G900…
Ummm… Gartner puts the iPhone around 8.2% of the market:
http://www.gartner.com/it/page.jsp?id=910112
Where are you pulling the “about 17%” from? Come on guys, don’t you feel even the slightest responsibility to at least pretend you have some sort of journalistic ethics? I mean isn’t it a little embarrassing to just make up numbers that are almost twice the actual market share, when you are getting paid to do this job? I would think that if nothing else some tiny shred of professional pride would keep you at least a little honest.
U.S. Marketshare not worldwide, you ass.
Nowhere in the article did it state that those were numbers just for the US. Also, I have yet to see a citation validating those numbers, even just for the US, for the entire year, rather than just the quarter where Apple launched a new model. There are four quarters in the year, and all anyone seems to care about when citing iPhone sales figures is the market share the quarter where they launch new product, as though that is the entire year.
ehm.. how do you get to the 100M iphones conclusion? go back to school, please.
one of the worst articles ever..
letting aside the xx million users who already have an iphone and those iphone-enthusiasts who all definitely will get the new iphone, I’d say that a low-end iphone (a.k.a. iphone 2.75) will attract new customers as well as some very-late-adopters (”what the heck, now i want one too”). Finally, looser contract obligations could encourage new customers going for AT&T (T-Mobile Germany respectively). I also believe that people w/o a smartphone are in need to change their mobile plans anyway because they now want to use mobile data networks – so why not switching to iphone carriers’ data flat rates directly?
Give me a good 3.2 MP camera, 32 GB of storage, and the rumored low-power OLED display for longer battery life and I’m in line.
Announce a new Touch with an oversized 5″ screen and I’ll buy one of those too.
I’ve enjoyed my 3g iPhone, but I don’t think I need to upgrade yet. I am looking forward to copy & paste.
That comes standard on a G1. Oh, the joys of copying and pasting. Try that on an iPhone.
I always think that last years model is fine too. Until the new model comes out and I’m flushed with technolust.
Of course it will sell!
Somewhat unrealistic to base hopes on buying a model of iPhone based on whether it has a multi-core processor. Hint: you’re not in the target market.
Similarly – there won’t be additional RAM though there may be an incremental CPU speed boost (still using the same CPU which is currently underclocked). Reason? Because developers would only develop for the new model and all of the 30 million folk who’ve bought previous models would be left out in the cold. If you give it to them, they’ll use it.
This model will bring a few new hardware features which will make a difference. For instance, I had video recording on My SonyEricsson. But it was crap. I had Internet on my Sony Ericsson. But it was crap. In fact, despite being a ‘3G’ phone, the Sony Ericsson K800i was absolutely awful. In the end it was only used to tether my laptop and Nokia N800. With iPhone, even in the first generation, I didn’t need to bring my laptop everywhere, I just used my iPhone instead. So, we’re getting video, we’re getting magnetometer, we’re getting larger storage, video upload and streaming, better camera and a heap of other things. Again, if you’re looking for a multicore processor, good luck – it sounds like you don’t even realise why you want it?
Apple has 17% of the smartphone market (based on the end of 2008 figures of there being 100 million smartphones out there). They’re going to be at 30% before you know it.
$feature won’t be crap on iPhone ]|[
No, actually they don’t have anywhere near what you claim based on the figures you cite.
http://www.gartner.com/it/page.jsp?id=910112
There are the exact figures, and the iPhone has 8.2%, neck and neck with Linux at 8.1%, and nowhere near 17%. There were 139,287,900 smartphones sold in 2008, and only 11,417,500 of them were iPhones. Do the math, and check your sources before you just throw out fake numbers.
If a cited number on market share is your only argument, then I gratefully accept the trophy for beating you soundly. Thanks.
The issue really isn’t how good the iPhone is or will be: but how every other smartphone is shite.
Beating me at what? You made up a number, grossly inflated the market share of the iPhone, and then when I point you to the right numbers, you say you “beat” me?
You are nuts. You flat-out lie about how well your favorite phone is doing, lie about how many smartphones were sold total, and when caught say that the numbers you brought up are unimportant? I don’t know what you think is at issue here, but clearly you don’t get that your credibility has been impugned by your fabricated numbers.
If the iPhone was from Microsoft and not Apple, it would have been a critical flop not a critical success due to all of the bugs it has.
I love my iPhone – I just struggle with Apple’s use of the word Phone in the title – two cans and a bit of string make a more reliable connection.
Get a new one? – maybe lets see if it compares to the mobile phone quality I had 8 years ago!
I ll definitely buy one, if I can afford it at the time. I ve been using the iPhone 2.0 but the key here is that I am not using it merely as a cellphone. If you compare the iPhone with any other cellphone with a touch-screen, wifi access etc. in mho you ll not find any with the simplicity, the speed and the beautiful GUI that the iPhone has. If you add the features that the 4.0 promises to deliver – and no the magnetometer is not the one most expected – such as Video, MMS (yes for many the lack of that was a reason not to buy one), applications that use Push notifications etc. then the new iPhone will convince even more users to take the turn.
Couldn’t agree more… My iPhone is great for many things, but making calls is not among them. I’d buy the next version, if it weren’t for ATT. In fact, as much as I love Apple, I’m seriously thinking of defecting…
I’m on an edge iPhone and I’ll consider upgrading. The iPhone is my most used physical possession,mostly because it’s always on me, so upgraded features will be used and offer me real value. The advent of accessories and push notificationa will only make the iPhone more integral to it’s average users life.
More than anything, I want snappier performance – I want apps and image-heavy websites to load without the pauses I’ve grown accustomed to. Waiting several seconds for the camera or maps applications to load is really annoying.
The #1 reasons I would by one:
- far better camera (the current one just sucks)
- video recording
- 3G & GPS (I still have the original iPhone)
I recognized the picture, Space Quest 3, a text based adventure game.
“Climb ladder”… nope…
“Open door”… nope…
“Pickup xyz”… nope…
On subject, I think I’ll be tempted by the next iPhone having skipped the 3G version. I’d like faster hardware but not at the cost of battery time.
People will pay for whatever phone doesn’t suck. It’s not that the iPhone will need to have new features every time a new one comes out for people to buy more (even though Jobs has a knack for that), but it just needs to frustrate people less. Too many phones have buggy software with new features bolted on instead of a clean, orderly UI and reliable software that works great with the hardware. The gotta-have new features in each new iPhone are just icing on the cake.
I was in line for the first iPhone, and got the 3G rather quickly. I’ve moved on from them to a Blackberry Bold. While it’s not the iPod the iPhone was, a Blackberry + BES = True mobile collaboration.
I love my iPhone 3G but it needs improvements I have not heard will appear in the next model – the ability to run Flash!! So many websites use Adobe’s Flash player and I have not access to them on my iPhone. Drive me nuts! Also, zoom for the camera, voice dialing, longer battery life and, of course, cut and paste. When they are willing to give me all of the above, I’ll buy the newer model. Until then, I’ll struggle with the 3G I have now. I need Flash Player, Steve Jobs!
This post is absolutely absurd. Get a clue. Will people buy it? Functionality of the iPod hasn’t changed….ever, besides playing video now. But most people still use it to play music, and most people still buy new ones on a pretty regular basis.
Wake up!
‘Cept I almost never use the ipod part of my iphone….I miss having a 3.2 MP camera in the pocket a la my old phone the sony ericsson k790a, but the functionality of a pocket OSX in the, err, pocket, is worth it. Would I buy a new one *just* for the camera? not a chance in hell, unless of course my current gen 1 iphone dies.
just waiting for my verizon contract to expire, honestly. would I buy in if I already had the current iPhone? No. Will I consider it from a non-smart phone? Hell yes.
I’ve got a BlackBerry, and I’m completely happy with it. If I wanted to dish out the cash for an iPhone, I’d just buy another computer. The only thing that iPhone really has going for itself, in my opinion, is the Apple brand name. I think the other smartphones are just as good, if not better in some cases.
I love my iPhone 3G, but I’m going to skip a generation and see if I can get my next iPhone upgrade on a different mobile network. ATT is the suX0r.
Clearly you underestimate the power of the RDF.
The iPhone 3G was a game changer. The ability to let folks develop apps for the rest of us to use was genius. Not only are the apps cool, some of the accessories rock as well. You like the iPhone headset? How about this adapter to use it for Skype on your PC: http://www.showmecables.com/viewItem.asp?idProduct=8183
Shouldn’t that be “iPhone ///” (to differentiate from the “iPhone ][”)?
That was bugging me too. Thanks. Have we forgotten that much history already?
Steve Jobs get better soon! What ever new technology you push out in the next months I will buy.
As long as I can sell my last iphone for more than a new iphone costs…count me in EVERY YEAR.
I was a long time Apple Doubter, and didn’t even want the iPhone until my company gave me one 2 years ago. I have to say that the iPhone changed my mobile life – I use it for so many different things, its absurd.
If it has Video and a better camera – I would upgrade my iPhone v1 for the new version – no questions asked.
17% of the smartphone market and the fact that the overall smartphone market is growing means there is a LOT of room for growth.
The buying frenzy may not be the last two but, even in spite of the economy, I don’t see this train stopping.
I had the first iPhone and the only reason I switched to the iPhone 3G was because it had 3G, “GPS”, 16GB.
There would have to be something big for this one for me to get one.
Some people (myself included) didnt jump into iphone 3g because of the minimal additions to the phone. Since the contract expires, its about time they upgrade the phone.
I used to be an early adopter, but that was hell, not to mention expensive.
When the new iPhone comes out, I’ll finally be able to justify buying an older one.
The amount of comments on this post just shows how addicted really iphone apple disciples already are. I bought the first and the second iphone and I will buy the 3rd one because the hardware can always be improved and I love to be up to date.
It is as simple as this and I am sure I am not the only one thinking this way. The iPhone is the mobile dream device and it gets better every year in terms of software and hardware. The competition has to worked incredibly hard to catch up and not to loose too much market share to Apple.
Did someone say iPhone? iPhone!
http://allthingsd.com/theme/media/atd_mini.swf?bctid=19113749001&playerid=716696183