Blu-ray was declared the winning format last year when HD DVD threw in the towel. This victory came after major studios left the HD DVD camp and joined up with Blu-ray. But just because a victory was celebrated, that doesn’t mean the format is successful. In fact, a recent Harris Interactive poll shows that many purchased an HD DVD player last year and most don’t plan on buying a Blu-ray player anytime soon.
This poll’s results might be shocking to some outside the tech community, but it clearly shows that consumers are ready to move past physical media and onto the digital downloads. In fact, secondary polls were conducted as well and found that an overwhelming number of people are “not at all likely” to purchase a Blu-ray device within the next year and many will buy fewer DVDs within six months.
This Harris Interactive poll (PDF) found that 11% of Americans own an HD DVD player despite the format being officially dead. Plus another 3% have the HD DVD add-on for the Xbox 360. This is up over 2008’s findings of 6% and 1%, respectively. Blu-ray’s penetration also rose, albeit not as much, from 4% in 2008 to 7% in 2009. The same goes for the PS3 with 7% of Americans now owning Sony’s gaming system.
But you thought HD DVD was dead? Well, it is. That doesn’t mean that consumers didn’t take advantage of the fire sales shortly after Blu-ray was declared the victor. Clearly consumers either aren’t aware of the benefits that Blu-ray provides, or they just aren’t interested in another physical media.
Think about it: 20 years ago, VHS was introduced. People rushed out to buy up all their favorite movies on that format. Then DVD was introduced. That format touted superior picture quality and discs loaded with extra features. So then consumers bought up their must-have movies a second time and continued to grow their collections with new releases.
But then another format was introduced: HD DVD. This time around, consumers heard the same marketing pitch: an even better picture and more extra features. Alright, some bought into that while Blu-ray slowly rolled out and crushed the first high-def optical media type. Many consumers sat on the sidelines as these two fought it out while a third player slowly crept onto the market: digital downloads.
Comcast doesn’t get much love around these parts. We’ve all had major problems with the provider, but Comcast has made one of the biggest pushes for the digital download movement. Its On Demand is built-into all of its cable boxes and has shown to the general consumer that they don’t need physical media. Why do they need to run down to Best Buy on Tuesday to buy the latest releases, when the same titles are available via On Demand on the same day for a fraction of the price? Or, why worry about returning a movie to Blockbuster when they can watch it at their convenience?
The second poll that Harris Interactive conducted found that 93% of consumers in 2009 are “somewhat/not at all likely” to buy a Blu-ray player. Last year, 91% of people said that. Plus, a third poll conducted found that consumers are only planning on buying 3.4 DVDs over the next six months versus the 6.2 that they purchased over the last six months.
The economy cannot be blamed for this. Blu-ray players are now at the $100 mark, and DVD discs are cheap. Consumers are likely finding that physical media isn’t the future; digital downloads are.
Even the video game industry is moving this way. 2009’s E3 featured two major players announcing their support for downloading games. The Xbox 360 is gaining this ability shortly via Xbox Live and the new PSP Go! doesn’t support physical media at all. All of its titles can be downloaded directly onto the device.
Currently there isn’t a standard way of downloading or streaming movies. There are too many providers spanning too many devices. But things are slowly starting to change. Netflix made its way onto many devices last year and Vudu, one of our favorites, is starting to embed its software into set-top boxes.
The music industry suffered a long, agonizing death because of its inability to change. Hopefully Hollywood took notes.
Just watch as ISP’s start bitching about excessive bandwidth use. With the recent trend of capping bandwidth usage from using stuff like P2P and BitTorrent, just imagine how much bandwidth is going to be needed to stream 720p+ videos.
normal DVD is enough for any software. Enough for any movie, unless somebody got extra sharp eyes…
Or extra-sharp ears. Those audiophiles and videophiles are a weird bunch, what with their money and all.
i am with your opinion.
This poll fails miserably. The conclusions are so detached from reality, it’s hard to imagine that Harris Interactive would want to publish it.
Blu-ray is still a more expensive than DVD, but the price difference is falling fast. As Crunchgear reported, refurb players are available for under $100, and new players are under $150. Get a NetFlix BD subscription, and watch as many Blu-ray movies as you want. It’s hard to beat the quality that you get with 50 Gigabytes of 1080P video and 24 bit 192 KHz lossless multi-channel audio.
If you can’t see, or don’t care about the difference between Blu-ray and DVD, you either need to get your eyes checked, or buy a decent HDTV.
Lol I don’t sit with my eyes only 12″ away from the screen, most people sit at least 15-20ft away from their TV and at that distance, you really can’t see a ‘major noticible’ difference between HD and normal resolution of a DVD (up-scaled or not).
DVD disks may be cheap ($5-9 at Target), but Blu-ray disks are not ($20+).
Huge difference.
And, the 50% of us who don’t own a hi-def TV cannot see any reason to purchase BDs.
I never understood why people buy movies, in any format… don’t you get bored after watching it? So, being that BR are expensive, Netflix is a great deal if you have a bluray player…
Also, bluray is not just about visual quality. I have the sony s550… with uncompressed analog audio out… I always thought my speakers sucked, but when you watch a movie on bluray in my house, the audio is amazing… I never knew the media had so much to do with it… I mean amaaazing… it will blow you away.
To get that kind of quality in an audio and video stream is years away…
I was working for a major record label in the 1990s, and we were seeing if consumers would try various higher-end audio formats, such as DAT’s (Digital Audio Tapes), DCC’s (Digital Compact Cassettes), and Gold CD’s. Beyond a niche of recording professionals and audiophiles, no one bit.
Most consumers didn’t see the upgrade as being worth the investment. Apparently, when it comes to movies, the sentiment is the same. The majority consumers don’t see a need for high-end equipment when their favorite movies include “Paul Blart: Mall Cop”.
I wonder what the percentage of people polled actually knew their was a difference between DVD HD-DVD.
I bet most people don’t know that there is any difference between Blu-ray and HD-DVD. After the, “what’s a web browser?” (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o4MwTvtyrUQ) video I learned that the average Joe knows little about the technology they buy/use.
now this is really funny,
a household of annual income of 35k-49.9k has 11% chance of owning a PS3, yet only 8% for xbox360?
looks like their pro console to target the middle-class sector isn’t working out as plan eh.
So, digital downloads aside, is HD-DVD really dead?
14% of respondents have a HD-DVD player (standalone or xbox add-on). That seems like quite a market.
In reality, as John Doe still cannot locate their browser, there seems to be a market for all three formats: HD-DVD, Bluray and Digital Downloads.
http://www.techcrunch.com/2009/06/17/yeah-what-is-a-browser-anyway/
I bet over 50% of US households still have a VCR, but that doesn’t mean there is still a worlthwile market for releasing movies on VHS.
When you can watch movies on demand, the incentive to own them is vastly reduced, regardless of the format.
Many consumers also realized that they were spending $9 to $20 on DVD’s that got watched once, then served as dust collectors on shelves. I know I have hundreds of dollars invested in a rapidly depreciating collection of DVD’s — hundreds of dollars that I wish I had invested in something more useful. Like socks.
Consumers may also be finally tired of amassing vast collections of media, only to be told a few years later that their format is antiquated.
*cough* http://www.crunchgear.com/2008/10/31/bff-blu-ray-she-is-dead/ *cough*
I said this back in October
HD-DVD vs BD is a non-issue. It’s High-def physical media (Blu-Ray) vs Downloadable content. I see this segmented into two products. The stuff you want to own and the stuff that you want to see but not really hang out on your shelf. This is sort of like the difference between magazines and hardcover books. The quality stuff should be on BD and the more casual stuff will be on downloadable content. The studios MUST make sure that the BDs have more exclusive quality content in terms of extras and A/V quality. High Def Physical media is not dead, it’s just that the studios aren’t pumping out decent stuff at a pace as fast as it did with the DVDs.
Well, that’s all well and good.
But given the data presented here, I don’t see any connection between digital downloads and physical media.
It could be (however unlikely) that fewer people are purchasing movies in all formats. Do you have any data showing that digital downloads are on the rise?
As Rich pointed out, most people still don’t know what a browser is – I’m having a hard time seeing an actual connection between decline in physical media sales due to (non-pirated) digital downloads.
“Plus another 3% have the HD DVD add-on for the Xbox 360″
Considering that Microsoft has sold a total of 30 million xbox 360’s worldwide, I dont understand how 3% of the entire American population has an xbox hd-dvd addon drive. If America has around 306 million people (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_United_States) that would mean that 9,180,000 HD-DVD drives have be sold “just” in the US. That also represents close to 30% of all xbox 360 owners have purchased the HD-DVD addon drive.
These stats are misleading.
The poll is obviously wrong. When Toshiba put an end to format war in early 2008 by shutting down the HD-DVD production lines, IIRC less than two million HD-DVD players had been sold (Wikipedia says it was only a million).
If the poll was true, there would be tens of millions of HD-DVD players in the United States alone. Clearly impossible. We’re not even talking about the same order of magnitude.
I think it’s inevitable we’ll go the way of digital movies over physical media. Some of the most recent BD movies I bought are now on Netflix Instant service in HD. And so now I stopped paying $29 for a movie I’ll watch once or twice a year. But it’s going to take a few (5+?) more years before we’ll get there. There needs to be a standard on-demand service instead of all these competitive products and a standard way to transmit the movies to every TV in the house. Apple are on their way there, so is MS with the 360. You could say On-demand cable services would be the way to go if they had more content. And when are TV manufacturers going to start building wireless functionality into the TVs?
Hmm… 5+ years?
It’s funny, we just finished the format that delivers this shift from physical media last Friday and now I see this report from Matt.
Physical is dying and we just released the biggest catalyst to speed this up.
“The music industry suffered a long, agonizing death because of its inability to change. Hopefully Hollywood took notes.”
What was Napster’s 1999 to the music industry is now that time for the movie industry.
The solution now exist to prosper, question is can any of the movie companies react in time to utilize the revolution before the underground does?
call me crazy, but doesn’t this poll prove that these types of polls are bogus?
I agree that we will inevitably move to digital (which I welcome), but to say HD-DVD ranks up their with Blu-Ray, as this poll suggests, is just bogus.
I don’t know *anyone* who bought a PS3 for the games. They bought the Blu-ray player inside with the game side more as a differentiator. Remember when bluray players cost 400 and so did the ps3? It doesn’t make sense to buy a bluray at that price
Add those numbers up and you see that blu-ray is doing fine.
The comparisons with music don’t hold up. The transition from CD to MP3/AAC was accompanied by devices which actually contained superior functionality to existing CD players.
Current movie downloads are inferior to optical video and players at the moment. Inferior video quality, worse selection of subtitle and sound tracks, no bonus features, etc.
It’s true that many consumers probably won’t care about inferior quality, after all, plenty of people are ok with 64-bit MP3, and millions of chinese have no problem with VCD. So it may very well be the case that digital downloads kill optical media, but it won’t be because they are currently better. They are superior only in convenience.
What you gain in convenience, you give up in quality, but you also agree to more onerous DRM, where the service you use knows your identity and viewing history. You potentially risk losing your entire ‘collection’ if the service provider you use goes down, and you get locked into proprietary vendor devices that can’t play each other’s DRMed digital downloads.
Yes, digital downloads are the future, but there is a long way to go. There needs to be an industry consortium standard open format so anyone can make interoperable devices and services. There needs to be provision for higher quality and more features. There needs to be an offline DRM solution that doesn’t kill your videos if the service provider goes out of business. There needs to be better privacy guarantees.
The people pronouncing optical dead are jumping the gun and predicting the obvious. There’s going to be another big earthquake in California. The question is when, not if. If DVD and BluRay survive another five years, the pundits here will be wrong.
The bit-rate on a blu-ray disk is several times higher than the bit-rate on “HD 1080p” downloads. Often by a factor of 6+ times greater.
When we can get 100Mbps ISP connections maybe blu-ray will be less useful.
But for the moment, long live Blu-ray disks from Netflix.
By its own announced numbers listed here (http://bit.ly/IM751) there had been 750,000 HD DVD players sold lifetime near the end of 2007, leaving only a few more months of sales to be accounted for.
I’m going to bet that a significant part of that 11% group of HD DVD owners actually own an HD-upconversion DVD player, not an HD DVD player. Otherwise, it would indicate that more people own HD DVD players than PS3s, and almost as many as own Xbox 360s, which was announced in November 2008 (http://bit.ly/FGZxQ) as being over 11 million (insert RRoD joke here).
@ray cromwell
“There needs to be an industry consortium standard open format so anyone can make interoperable devices and services.”
Does there really need to be just one standard? This is not physical media we are talking about. think of how many audio standard there are: Dolby, THX, etc etc. Almost every piece of hardware can accommodate many formats. And with the advent of multi-format reading devices (DVD, DVD-R, DVD+RW, etc), I dont think its a format game.
All of the digital downloads come down to a simple matter: bandwidth
Yes, there needs to be standards with consumer electronics devices, otherwise the result is consumer frustration and confusion. While readers of this blog may have joy going to download the latest libffmpeg/VLC/MPlayer codecs when their player announces they can’t handle a certain format, most people can’t.
The highest penetration comes from uniform playback and the avoidance of consumer hassle, that’s why Flash dominates video because it already has high penetration and there’s no need to download arbitrary third party codecs.
The issue is, if you buy a digital download from Netflix, will it play on your BlockBuster device, or Apple TV, PS3, or X-Box? I don’t want to have 10 difference playback boxes hooked up to my TV just to accommodate the different service providers.
Today, I can go to any video store and buy an optical media disc, and it will play on any of my devices. But if I go to difference digital download services (which have differing movie collections/selections!) I end up needing different playback software or hardware for each service. This is intolerable.
Thus, either there will be an open industry standard, or there will be a monopoly (like Apple or Microsoft) which has its service/format dominate. Because your grandmother just can’t deal with the complexity otherwise.
Maybe I’m missing something, but that PDF doesn’t really show that consumers are move past physical media.
I just bought a new Nehalem desktop, pretty much top of the line. I skipped Blu-Ray and HDMI though… I mean “Why do I need it?” I really want a monster computer for software development, I don’t need the headaches that are going to come from DRM. Blu-Ray isn’t going to make a big difference on 20-inch monitors, even if I have three of them.
Wait, I’m confused by this article. It’s very misleading. If anyone took the time to read the PDF, you wouldn’t see any numbers dealing with digital downloads.
Just because people aren’t moving onto Blu-Ray doesn’t mean that more are moving to digital downloads. If anything, DVD is the most popular format at the moment.
The poll results simply aren’t credible – HD DVD players have not been available at retail for well over a year, other than a few online shops selling refurbs or old stock, and less than ten new HD DVD titles (none major) have been released this year. My guess is the poll didn’t clearly distinguish between “high-def DVD (i.e. upsampled) vs HD DVD. Harris blew this one bigtime.
Until there is a viable and affordable way for people to legally download and stream movies to their Tv’s then “digital downloads” mean nothing. Blu Ray will replace DVD and then something else will replace Blu Ray – now if that is physical media or something else is an issue for debate. Blu Ray will get bigger and bigger just like DVD did 10 years ago. Just because Mom and Pop don’t tell a pollster they will upgrade doesn’t mean it will not happen or that junior will not get them a stand alone player for a gift.
This article is so full of misunderstood statistics that I don’t even know where to begin.
The methodology description on Page 6 may be instructive:
“Respondents for this survey were selected from among those who have agreed to participate in Harris Interactive surveys. The data have been weighted to reflect the composition of the adult population. Because the sample is based on those who agreed to participate in the Harris Interactive panel, no estimates of theoretical sampling error can be calculated.”
Basically, they’re saying, “This poll contains sampling error of unknown quantity. That should now stop you from making decisions based on this ‘data.’”
They should have at least tracked the sample longitudinally (same folks, diff year) to see what this particular sample did.
How the hell did the ownership rate of HD DVD almost double from 2008 to 2009 given that Blu-ray won the format war in Q1 of 2008? Also, households making less than $35k now have an ownership rate that exceeds the total from 2008. Boy, the poor really are stupid, huh?
This “teaser” press release makes me not want to pay for the full data. I’ll have to keep this in mind because I see Harris polls for all sorts of stuff.
NetFlix + HandBrake + 2TB Hard Drive + Mac Mini = Nirvana.
Living in New York City, storing hundreds of discs isn’t an option. Netflixing movies, and ripping them to a hard drive for later watching is the way to go for me!
I know it means USING discs, but not OWNING discs.
The HD-DVD ownership probably increased because retail markets were forced to liquidate the otherwise worthless HD-DVD players. Lots of people bought HD-DVD players for REALLY CHEAP, as well as movies on HD-DVD for REALLY CHEAP. This is all fine and dandy, until the movies they bought become dated enough that they won’t want to dig out the 8-track player… erm, the HD-DVD player from the closet just to watch these movies in hi-def.
Also, downloadable movies are fine and dandy, but still pose many more problems that still prevent me from saving $5 or so. For instance, I recently watched a download-only movie and a friend asked, “Hey, can I borrow it when you’re finished watching it.” Sorry, I can’t do it. It’s on my TiVo and in my Amazon account. Oh well.
We are going camping next month. It would be great to bring these movies along with us. Unfortunately, the policies of the download services don’t allow me to burn a DVD. I don’t want to bring my laptop with me camping, so it looks like it’ll be the portable DVD player and some older DVDs on physical media.
Also, my wife recently wanted to get me a movie as a birthday gift. I’ve been trying to go the “download only” route lately, but felt a little weird saying “yeah, just get me a movie for download.” Huh? What is she going to do? Give me a gift-card for the PlayStation Store or for Amazon? That’s a lame gift. So, instead, she opted to buy me a physical DVD.
So, until the physical word can easily translate into the virtual world, downloadable media is only going to become popular among an elite group. Perhaps it can be something as simple as special cards that represent the movie. When purchased, this card can be used to unlock the movie for download. That way, the “thought that counts” is more than just some dollar amount, but is also a chosen movie.
On the flip-side, I have been debating whether or not I want my movie library to be through the PlayStation Network or through Amazon. If Netflix sets one up (for purchasing movies and streaming them), I will be torn even more. Then, when people want to buy me “gifts” of “downloads”… I have to worry which service it is through, or making sure to let them know which one I have settled on.
So, until all services equally share the movie data and let you take your movies with you, no matter the provider or the device to watch them on, we suffer the same “format wars” with downloads as we do every time a new physical format is revealed.
Yawn, another day, another article about Crunchgear editors wanking off to the idea of a big brother-like DD-only world.
Wake up and smell the silicone, it is NOT going to happen.
Can you please answer me just WHY you want to throw away every one of your damn rights as a consumer just so you don’t have to get your lazy ass off the couch or even wait a day for something to arrive in the mail?
You know, ability to shop around, sell used, rent, buy used, etc?
So the results of an online poll of 2,401 Americans and suddenly it’s taken as gospel that Blu-ray is failing?! These articles really are pethetic.
How did they advertise the poll? Did it represent a valid cross-section of the population? I doubt it very much with only 2,401 responses…
Let’s put it in other terms:
384 people surveyed own a device capable of playing Blu-rays
336 people surveyed own a device capable of playing HD-DVDs (168 of which bought it after the format failed meaning they took advantage of them practically being given away!)
Yet based on these 2000 or so mystery Americans that were browsing online in April Blu-ray is failing on a global scale? Come on get serious, you shouldn’t even be giving this analyst the satisfaction of getting press coverage….
In other news a poll of 2000 visitors to Bluray.com showed 84% of Americans now own a Blu-ray player, and a poll of 2000 visitors to playstation.com showed 91% of Americans own a PS3 – oh look percentages, it must be true… /sarcasm
‘2,401 Americans’ were involved in the poll?
Say no more ROFL!
There is a website out there that has web browser extensions you can download for the Google Chrome web browser. According to that website’s logs, 83% of the world now uses Google Chrome as their web browser. It’s scientific fact!
/sarcasm
I’m not crazy about the guy but B.Gates said couple of years ago that HD-DVD & Blue-ray was going to be the last physical format we knew, and well guys he nailed it!
Not exactly rocket science. Here’s another prediction. There will be a major earthquake in California within the next ten years. And another one. Downloads will continue to pick up acceptance as more and more providers roll out download options. In turn, physical media will be on the decline. And yet another! More and more information will move to “the cloud” and more and more devices will tap into this and become powerful without needing a powerful operating system of impressive specs. I’m on a roll. I’m nailing ‘em!
Don’t underestimate Gates prediction two years ago, there was nothing like a cloud, or even worse it meant something totally different than what it’s clear for everyone now.
At that time the hd-dvd vs blue-ray war was starting to heat up, so that was no rocket science but also not that obvious for most of the people.
I told you I don’t specially like the guy either… but we’ve got to be objective.
To be honest, I’ve been telling people for a long time now they were from Jurassic when they try to burn something on DVD, I still see their surprise when I ask them “are you from the past?” when they want to burn software distros on cds…
Ha ha ha ha ha, seriously, that old “dinosaur” argument? You think it makes you cool to instantly jump on any new tech, completely ignoring any benefits older tech has lest somebody label you as a “dinosaur”?
You seriously insult people who use older media just to make yourself feel superior?
You DO realize that people have been predicting “the end of physical media” for a long time now and it still never happened?
Every time there is a new online tech, people go “this is it! This will kill physical media!” and it has not.
You realize there is a REASON for this right?
Did you even read others comments about how broken, biased, and misleading the data in this article is? Or did you just go “A DD argument! Time to prove I’m not a dinosaur and call everybody else one!”?
I love how NOBODY who is a hardcore DD supporter (all of which BTW also love using the term “dinosaur”) ever debates my points, or just tries to argue with “meh, those don’t matter” despite being very good points that shoot holes into all their theories.
If you had little kids, you’d understand that physical media still has its necessity. I don’t see physical media “dying”, but changing uses. I can’t send my son to daycare with a download. At least, not yet. So, if he wants to watch his favorite movie at daycare, and the daycare provider doesn’t have the movie, then my only option for a while is going to hand the physical media to the daycare provider.
Sure, there may eventually be some sort of “sharing” options. However, what if the daycare provider only uses service B and my son’s favorite movie is owned through service A? Again, in order for physical media to truly go the way of the dinosaur, there will need to be some sort of agreed upon (and possibly federally mandated) collaboration between all digital media providers whereby I can transfer my “downloads” from one provider to the next and even have the ability to “loan” a movie to another user.
Until that day comes, the “big switch over” is only going to be for the early adopters.
In any case, you missed my point entirely. My point is… *I* saw this coming (the switch to digital-only content) in 1994. So, the fact that you give Bill Gates props for making such an amazing “prediction” is very short-sighted. Maybe you didn’t see this coming and, from your point of view, Bill is a wizard. However, there are plenty of people who are just saying “ho-hum” because he is only repeating the words of thousands.
To give you an example, in 1994 AT&T was working with Blockbuster Video in an attempt to put set-top boxes in people’s homes so they could watch movies which were digitally downloaded instead of having to go to a physical rental store to rent movies. That project hit a dead-end due to laws regarding broadcasting. The movies Blockbuster Video were allowed to rent were under special privilege. Plainly put, they weren’t allowed to “broadcast” these movies. Cable television stations like HBO and Showtime had “next dibs” for such movies.
Also in 1994, Sega was looking into a concept where a game cartridge would be plugged into a home’s TV-cable system and would download games from a virtual library onto the cartridge, which could then be played on the console.
So, many people (and many corporations) have been pushing for this for years. So, it’s no “prediction” to say it’s going to happen. No more than it is a “prediction” for me to say that cars are going to get more fuel efficient over the next 5 years… or that more and more people will be telecommuting. It’s just a statement of the obvious.
Where people FAIL is predicting exactly WHEN this will happen. Sega, AT&T, and Blockbuster Video probably thought the day would come much, much sooner. Legal problems and technical problems and market problems all stood in their way. And, still, even though many big players are making headway, there are still legal, technical, and market problems standing in their way still.
We are definitely at the point of acceleration, but there is still a long road ahead. I still give it 5-10 years before physical media is truly approaching “dinosaur” status. At that point, nobody will have been surprised. By that point, Blu-ray will have lasted about as long as DVD had… and instead of looking for the next physical format to supplant Blu-ray, people will be falling all over themselves to be THE service provider for your entire digital library. I suspect that by the time this happens, Google may even be a large player in that realm.
They’ll always be a place for downloads, but it’ll never replace portable media, most normal people still prefer to ‘touch’ and ’store’ their media on a simple disc and always will.
1) The poll data is misleading.
2) It doesn’t prove, much less suggest anything about digital downloads.
3) Physical formats will never die, because people want to listen to, or watch, some things over and over again. I said “some things”. Not everything.
4) Digital downloads are easily disposable, which is why things with no lasting value will go to this format.
@MT,
I disagree that the reason physical formats will never die is because people want to listen to or watch some things over and over again. How is this not already possible with digital downloads?
I purchased Army of Darkness as a digital download via Amazon’s Video On Demand service. When I want to watch it, I send it to my TiVo and start watching it on my TV. Then, I can keep it on the TiVo if I wish… or I can delete it to make room for other things… but I can always download it again from my Amazon account without having to pay again.
I think the idea of one-time-only downloads will never survive… but Amazon’s concept will prevail. One should be able to continue to re-download one’s own purchased library. It’s a combination of digital downloads and living “in the cloud”. Instead of your library filling up an expensive hard drive… or filling up a DVD rack in your home… it will fill up your virtual drive “in the cloud”.
Of course, as I have said before, there are competing formats each with their own philosophy. As long as competing services exist and do not collaborate, physical formats will continue to exist. For instance, Amazon lets you re-download anything you had previously purchased. Sony’s store does NOT allow you to do this, however they DO allow you to back up your downloads to a secondary backup drive and restore from this drive later. I prefer Amazon’s solution.
Sure, your Amazon video works………. for now….. in Amazon approved devices…… in accordance to their TOS.
Funny how my DVD however will play in just about anything that has a DVD drive and a screen and/or video output?
And funny how could shop around for my DVD, find different prices, buy it used, and even sell it when I no longer want it?
Not everybody wants to rent (which is essentially what on-demand services like Netflix are, as long as you pay you can access their entire library) as for owning, most people place little value in owning something that exists only as theoretical ones and zeros and is locked with enough DRM to make Fort Knox look like a house in a shady neighborhood with all its doors and windows torn out. Not to mention the shop around, different prices, buy used, sell, etc arguments.
So do you OWN your tin-foil hat, or are you just RENTING it? :D
“So do you OWN your tin-foil hat, or are you just RENTING it? :D”
Wow, I claim that people never try to refute my points, and what do you do? You just insult me instead of try to refute my points.
I don’t think I am the one with the tinfoil hat here.
I apologize… I admit that I was assuming that there would be a sense of humor in this thread. Apparently not. In any case, some of the comments you made (in terms of things being theoretical or real) could only be described as paranoia, which is why I made the joke. It was not meant as an insult. It’s a very common fear every time a new technology comes out. Thankfully, history has proven that people eventually overcome these fears and advancements take root. ATMs are one example of this.
I’m curious about the fact that you say you can shop around for your CDs. You can also shop around for song downloads and find better rates at different places. The ability to buy used or resell songs is definitely a valid point, and is why I have said that digital downloads aren’t likely to take over for another 5 or 10 years. During that time, I presume those issues will have been ironed out. Of course, through competition, it’s very likely the issues won’t be ironed out, and we’ll all still be using physical media.
Personally, I think we SHOULD be pushing for all digital. You talk about “virtual 1s and 0s” but there are also 1s and 0s on that CD of yours. The 1s and 0s are no more “virtual” on my hard drive than they are on a CD I have burned or one I have purchased.
And you’re right about DRM… it has to go… but it HAS been going, just very slowly. Again, the way I see the future of 10 years from now is that people will purchase songs and movies for download. The song or download will be DRM-free. They will be able to store the files on their harddrives, transfer them to any devices, etc… Along with this purchase will be a certificate of ownership. It can be a file… a code… something which proves that you are the owner. This way, if you’re caught with these DRM-free songs and movies, you can just show your proof of ownership, and all will be good.
The problem all along has been this. Printing books costs money. Burning DVDs and CDs USED to cost a bunch of money. Transferring and duplicating files is SUPER-CHEAP. So, as technology has advanced, we have essentially all been given the ability to commit crimes for much cheaper than before. If you burned a few thousand copies of a CD and went to a flea market to sell them, you were much more likely to be caught and the risk versus the reward was more likely to prevent the crime from taking place at all. Now, you can distribute the song to thousands or millions of people virtually without costing you anything… and you’re more likely to do this for free, because you have no costs to recoup. This is still something that needs to be addressed. Otherwise, we can just assume that the whole music and movie industry should just go away and we should find other ways to be entertained, such as interpretive dance.
“I’m curious about the fact that you say you can shop around for your CDs. You can also shop around for song downloads and find better rates at different places. The ability to buy used or resell songs is definitely a valid point, and is why I have said that digital downloads aren’t likely to take over for another 5 or 10 years. During that time, I presume those issues will have been ironed out. Of course, through competition, it’s very likely the issues won’t be ironed out, and we’ll all still be using physical media.”
Only very grudgingly have a FEW stores started carrying DRM-free tracks, the majority have massive DRM still in place. And movies are far worse.
On top of these, for movies, there is almost no DD service that can give you all a disk has (extras, subtitles options, BD live, etc) nor is the quality as good.
The fact that as network speeds increase, so does the storage capacity on physical media increase to outmatch it always holds true
Back when it was excruciating to download a floppy, we got CDs. When CDs were no problem to download, we got DVDS. When DVDS became not much of a chore to download we got BD disks that still haven’t even reached their max 100GB, or possibly higher, size.
On top of that, WHAT reason would anybody have to allow people to buy “used” digital media or sell it? There is zero reason whatsoever, since there is only losses in it for them, not profit, why would they ever allow the consumer to do that? Not to mention that there is technically no such thing as used digital media, since it cannot be suspect to wear and tear like a disk. Sure, you could sell a used LICENSE, but still, again, why would the content provider ever allow it? I dunno about you but I don’t like the idea of being tied into a single store with all sales final and all prices final.
“Personally, I think we SHOULD be pushing for all digital. You talk about “virtual 1s and 0s” but there are also 1s and 0s on that CD of yours. The 1s and 0s are no more “virtual” on my hard drive than they are on a CD I have burned or one I have purchased.”
Except they are sold on a physical medium that you CAN easily sell, shop around for, buy used, etc. On top of that, they are a standard, any device designed for it can play it, you aren’t restricted to what devices the content provider feels you should use.
“And you’re right about DRM… it has to go… but it HAS been going, just very slowly. ”
ONLY for music,the biggest pusher was Apple………. who has a complete OPPOSITE opinion when it comes to DRM for anything else.
By the way, I am talking about ALL forms of content, not just movies and music, I mean software and games as well. I sure as hell do NOT want software to become a DD-only world.
Sure, only a few stores carry DRM-free tracks. Give it more time. If you complained about how few stores actually carry CDs when CDs were being introduced to the world, or how few stores carry Blu-ray when Blu-ray was being introduced to the world, you argument would have only held weight for the few years you were complaining. I’m doing forward looking here, not just looking at today. Looking at today, I’m cautious about how much of my library I get digitally versus physically. I’d say I buy about 70% of my movies on DVD, 20% on Blu-ray, and 10% digitally. As for music, I purchase 80% digitally (and DRM-free) and the other 20% physically (when a DRM-free option isn’t available).
As for the extras that discs have… personally, I don’t care. I admit that I feel downloads should be priced slightly cheaper than the physical media due to the lack of the nice case and the extras on the physical media. Otherwise, I never ever check out the extras. For me, personally, it’s a waste of time. If I had 2 hours to look at extras, I’d rather just watch another movie on my to-watch list.
I agree that the size of media continues to get larger and larger, but there is a point where it won’t matter anymore and everyone will stop focusing on making the data larger. Look at music. It has pretty much reached a cap. Nobody is rushing out to come out with discs that are “better than CD quality”. As a result, MP3s (at a decent bitrare) aren’t going to continue to get larger and larger every year. I feel that movies have reached the same apex. With Blu-ray, 1080p and the high quality sound, there really isn’t much more of a need to go further. In fact, while audiophiles and videophiles can tell the difference between DVD and Blu-ray, there are also many who don’t. Sometimes it is because they don’t have a high enough quality television, and in other cases it’s just because they don’t care as much. When I buy a Blu-ray, I do so for big special-effects movies like Transformers. If I’m getting something like “The Holiday”, I don’t really need high quality video or sound that goes above and beyond DVD, so I just get the DVD quality.
Why would a company every sell songs that allow people to sell or trade the digital media? Competition. While it may seem like a backwards move, a move to make consumers more at ease can also be a lucrative move. For instance, one of the goals Google pushes for with each of its products is the ability for users to export their own data so that if they wish to use another provider, they can bring their data with them. Previously, the usual way of doing business on the web was data-lock-in. It was the smart business move. So, why wouldn’t Google do this? To put people at ease. If you know you won’t be “stuck” you might be more likely to try it out. Once one provider does it and people start making the switch, other providers will do it to not be out-done.
Is this guaranteed to happen? No. Might it? Sure. We can only hope.
As for your comment about software, I’m rather surprised. The last time I purchased software on a physical medium was 1993. For me, software was the first to go all digital. Next was music. Movies will be next. For software, if I need to “prove” that I own it, I just show the confirmation email when I registered for the software… or the license number.
“Sure, only a few stores carry DRM-free tracks. Give it more time. If you complained about how few stores actually carry CDs when CDs were being introduced to the world, or how few stores carry Blu-ray when Blu-ray was being introduced to the world, you argument would have only held weight for the few years you were complaining.”
Except stores that sell Blu-RAy disks, which have been around for far less time than downloadable media, are more common than stores that carry digital media, especially digital media, oops, there goes the “its new!” argument.
“As for the extras that discs have… personally, I don’t care.”
So you feel your personal views should dictate the entire market? Wow, how self-centered.
Many people DO care about such things however, just because DD fits you perfectly dosen’t mean everybody cares for it, nor does it make them “dinosaurs” for not preferring it.
“I agree that the size of media continues to get larger and larger, but there is a point where it won’t matter anymore and everyone will stop focusing on making the data larger.”
Im afraid it does, espeially for software.
The stupidest thing a person can think is “I will never need and more space for such a thing”. Physical media WILL grow and audio and video WILL find a need to use that larger media.
I USED to make the same mistakes too, thinking that’s it in terms of size for some type of digital recording, I was wrong, every time.
You are a fool if you think that BD quality is the highest audio/video quality we will ever need and never need a medium that holds more data for it.
“Nobody is rushing out to come out with discs that are “better than CD quality. As a result, MP3s (at a decent bitrare) aren’t going to continue to get larger and larger every year. I feel that movies have reached the same apex.”
Not only do such higher quality audio formats exist (most CDs are a mere 2.0 sound), but MP3 is ALREADY outdated and getting replaced by higher quality formats (that take up more space).
“Why would a company every sell songs that allow people to sell or trade the digital media? Competition.”
Ah, but see, that is the beauty of DD (and why every content provider is drooling over the idea of locking people into a DD-only world)….. IT ESSENTIALLY ELIMINATES COMPETITION! What competition is there? You can’t buy an exclusive track from someone else, you HAVE to buy it from them, and since there would be no way to buy used or sell yours (which is kinda pointless as there is no such thing as used digital data) there can be no competition and therefore no need to lower the price.
Google does it because its core business model is to provide alternatives and open products. They make them open so its also easy to move TO them as well, and they are banking on you preferring Google over the alternatives.
Plus, this is YOUR content, not somebody else’s.
“As for your comment about software, I’m rather surprised. The last time I purchased software on a physical medium was 1993.”
Good for you, most people didn’t even have internet access back then, or a modem above 9.6Kbps.
Now most people have 10Mbps broadband connections yet STILL prefer physical mediums.
Again, just because YOU prefer digital mediums and clearly jumped on the bandwagon at an absurdly early age does not mean everybody else does or prefers it.
I already mentioned the tons of downfalls of physical medium, WHAT pray tell OTHER than not having to drive to a store or wait for it to be delivered (which personally feels like the epitome of increasing laziness) does digital downloads provide over physical mediums? Is that slight convenience so you can spend another 30 minutes in your chair seriously worth everything you would be giving up as well as all consumer rights and right of first sale?
I’m not quite sure which side of the issue you’re on. I’m the one who has been telling people that Blu-ray is here to stay… that physical formats will continue to be around… and that downloadable media is going to take a while to catch on. It’s as if you’re reading what I write, tuning it out, and then rampaging. It’s terribly off-topic.
My views don’t single-handedly matter… but the reality is, you’re in the minority. I do see where you’re coming from… and the same goes for those hanging onto the Vinyl revolution… but I’m just cluing you into what has been happening and what is likely to continue happening. You can say “it’s not going to happen” just because you’d prefer it didn’t, but that won’t change a thing. The market is not you… it’s not me… it’s the collective. And it just so happens that I’m in the majority of the collective. I’m for ATMs, digital distribution, paperless bills, paperless payments, etc… Anything that uses less physical resources and junk and takes up physical space, the better.
As for the size thing, yes… software keeps heading in this direction because software is increasingly including more video and audio content. I can forsee games including the equivalent of 10+ hours of hi-def video content. At some point, the cost to produce the content might not be worth the income… but the gaming market is booming right now, so games are going to keep getting larger and larger until that economy bottoms out. So, there is likely still going to be physical media for games (especially for console) for quite a while. Of course, broadband speeds are also increasing by leaps and bounds… so the physical media may eventually end up in the majority for those who cannot afford the top-of-the-line broadband or who live outside of its reach.
As for Blu-ray, do you really think the human eye can visually perceive more of a difference warranting yet another format to hold more resolution? People, for years, said that there will ALWAYS be a need to continue to increase the number of colors that monitors and operating systems could support. Once everyone reached 32-bit video, and the market momentum stopped. Now, you no longer see operating systems or monitors advertising the number of colors they can support. Now, it’s all about resolution… but even resolution is tapering off. There MIGHT be ONE MORE STEP beyond 1080p… but there is going to be little reason for something like 10800p, as the human eye is simply not going to be able to discern the difference. In 30 years, if we reach 10800p, then you can send me a note and say “I told you so”… but I just don’t see this happening. There are much more important things to accomplish in the world (such as dealing with poverty or dying celebrities) than to try to get computers to generate more colors and higher resolutions than our eyes can even tell apart.
Nonetheless, I can understand your frustration… the market moves in a direction that deals with the majority… and being in the minority, it heads in a direction that you prefer it didn’t. You shout loudly, but you aren’t heard. It’s frustrating, I know. But at some point, you just need to either accept it… or make a good enough case for your opinion that you sway the masses, and you become the majority.
You also seem to be very close-minded about how digital distribution of the future will work. You are looking at how it is NOW, and you aren’t wanting THAT to take over. It won’t. It will be different. And I don’t think your complaints will be as valid anymore. You won’t just buy your games from the Sony-only store, for instance… there will be other retail stores where you will be able to choose where you purchase your digital file… for every physical store that exists today, there will be virtual stores online. Why the market would head in this direction is because it costs less to have a virtual store than a physical one. It’s easier to market. It allows more competition. Think about it… if a Joe Schmoe wants to open up his own video store or game store, he’d have to have tens of thousands of dollars or more to invest, and he’d only be able to have a single store in one area. It’d pale in comparison to the chains that exist today. So, with physical mediums, there are virtual monopolies where only big-box stores can sell you the stuff. Once everyone shifts to virtual, all mom-and-pops will be able to create online stores and use various marketing tactics to turn a profit, putting more pressure on the larger stores, helping to drive down prices and improve customer service.
I would imagine that the groups who would want physical media to survive are the ones behind GameStop, probably THE most corrupt corporation in the world next to Big Tobacco.
“I’m not quite sure which side of the issue you’re on. I’m the one who has been telling people that Blu-ray is here to stay”
I said physical media in the future is here to stay too, not just Blu-Ray.
“My views don’t single-handedly matter… but the reality is, you’re in the minority.”
Got any proof of this or is this just a “because I want it to happen” kinda thing? you ignore everythign I said and just claim “this is the truth!” with nothing to back it up.
“I’m for ATMs, digital distribution, paperless bills, paperless payments, etc”
I KNEW you DD nuts woulden’t be able to resist trying to claim people who are against it are practically Amish. Sorry but you will need something better than assuming I refuse to use any new technology. I quickly tossed away tape-based music/vidoe for disk based, and tossed away cd players for MP3, that does not mean I will jump on EVERY new technology. DD kills FAR too many of my rights for me to ever accept it, and MILLIONS feel the same I am afraid.
“As for Blu-ray, do you really think the human eye can visually perceive more of a difference warranting yet another format to hold more resolution?”
Yes actually, and THIS is a perfect exacple of why you cannot see the big picture. You only consider ONE aspect, reoslutinon, You cannot see the whole picture, you only focus on one thing and don’t see it as progressing.
First of all, YES, the human eye can see AND tell the difference from 1080p easily, in fact, computer monitors have been able to do DOUBLE that if not more for years, and the difference is quite noticable. Second, there is more than just reoslution. Framerate, color depth, audio quality audio channels, etc etc
Its this kinda singlemindedness that made you claim the absolutely asasinine statement that video won’t need above blu-ray.
Did audio stop at Vinyl? Tape? CD? MP4? Do you think NOW it will stop at MP4? Anybody who says yes probably also said yes to the tape or cd being the end-all back in the day.
“There MIGHT be ONE MORE STEP beyond 1080p… but there is going to be little reason for something like 10800p”
MY 5+ year old monitor can go far beyond 1080p, you CLEARLY know nothing about what you are talking about and just resort to claims of me being outdated or fearng change to try to attack my anti dd-only stance. Typical, I have dealt with DD zelots like you before. At times you are worse than Mac Fanboys who believe that Macs cannot crash and have special hardware…
“Nonetheless, I can understand your frustration… the market moves in a direction that deals with the majority… and being in the minority, it heads in a direction that you prefer it didn’t. You shout loudly, but you aren’t heard. It’s frustrating, I know.”
How about you get off your high horse, shut the **** up, and actually debate like a rational person instead of going “cry some more” when you clearly have NO actual debate against my topics and can see your points being torn apart? This is about the dozenth time you resorted to this majority/minority bullshit with no proof other than to stroke your ego and make yourself feel better.
“if a Joe Schmoe wants to open up his own video store or game store, he’d have to have tens of thousands of dollars or more to invest, and he’d only be able to have a single store in one area. It’d pale in comparison to the chains that exist today. So, with physical mediums, there are virtual monopolies where only big-box stores can sell you the stuff. Once everyone shifts to virtual, all mom-and-pops will be able to create online stores and use various marketing tactics to turn a profit, putting more pressure on the larger stores, helping to drive down prices and improve customer service.”
Oh please, this crap has been TRIED before. It failed, hard, every time. The publishers are not going to let “Joe Schmoe” as you put ti have access to their encryption/DRM keys when he dosen’t know the difference between a computer and a hole in his rear, and neither will the developer when they can have 100% control over the content. Do you really think Sony, Microsoft, or Nintendo woudl allow 3rd parties to sell downloadable games from a service that is not theirs on their consoles?
You are doing nothing but presenting wildly idealistic scenarios that any moment of thinking will make it obivous why they won’t work out.
If the world goes DD-only, only ONE thing will happen, total monopoly and the end of right of first sale for any media. They would have ZERO reason to actually provide ANY of these inane services you keep dreaming up, each one being more ridiculus than the last.
“I would imagine that the groups who would want physical media to survive are the ones behind GameStop, probably THE most corrupt corporation in the world next to Big Tobacco.”
…. seriously, do you have zero mind of your own and just go by what message forums and random tech blogs tell you?
Seriously? You HONESTLY tried to pull a “GameStop is the devil!” argument?
Just keep digging your grave deeper and deeper, with every post you make youself look like more and more of a fool who dosen’t know what he is talking about.
What next, are you going to claim that there is no difference between 2.0 and 7.1 audio? Or that there is no need to have a connection over 10Mbps? That you broke your computer’s retractable cup holder?
I m starting to wonder if you was even BORN before 1993.
And please, don’t pull that “I have a degree in (whatever)” bull, anybody can claim they have a PhD on the internet, if you don’t believe I have 50 PhDs then just give me a few minutes in photoshop.
Wow, well I can see you only want to argue your case just to argue your case. Considering that is apparent, I will let you be. Although I like technology, I am not so obsessed that I want it to consume my life, so I will leave you to the rest of your long posts which, incidentally, are also coming across rather angrily. There are no emotional outbursts on my part about this topic. Technology is just technology.
You ask for “proof” but, to me, the proof is all around us. The very fact that you listed MP3/MP4 as valid successors to Vinyl, CD, etc just helps prove my point. Are Vinyl records “still around”? Sure. So, in that aspect, physical media will still be around for many years to come. My point of things going digital wasn’t to imply that all physical matter in the world would suddenly cease to exist… just that physical mediums would become the minority. That’s all.
Look at music. Look how difficult it is to find cassette tapes with current music. It’s easier to find CD, but it’s getting much more difficult to find music-only stores like Music Warehouse. Simply put, to get music CDs, one now has to resort to places like Best Buy and Target. Even the selections at those stores are limited. There were much larger selections available from the music-only stores, which have been shuttering their doors for the past several years. They claim it’s because of music piracy, whereas I believe it’s due to a switch from physical media to digital media.
Look how popular the iPod is. It isn’t popular because it’s a great piece of hardware… because there were plenty of great pieces of hardware (mp3 players) which preceded it. The difference was, the music store was “built-in”. Apple made purchasing music a no-brainer. The sheer amount of music being purchased digitally is huge, and continues to grow every day. Even people who buy CDs often rip the songs from the CD to put onto their music players and their PCs. It’s all about digital media with the physical media being treated as a backup.
The big three game consoles on the market are pushing harder and harder for downloadable games. In many cases, the sheer number of games made available for download outnumber the number of games on disc. Don’t get me wrong, I do understand that in the gaming world, digital content is still in its infancy. It will be some time before disc-based games start dwindling and, for some games, a disc (especially a Blu-ray disc) will be a necessity. Nonetheless, disc will become the minority special-case rather than the default.
Netflix, which started off with only physical DVD rentals have pushed hard into the digital content delivery. A simple $99 box plugged into your television gives you access to tons of content. Sure, most of this content is second-class… but that’s because Netflix doesn’t charge extra for this service. If they ever implement a pay-for-play service, there will be yet another available service for XBox 360 owners, TiVo owners, or owners of that Roku box.
Gone are the days when only geeks who live on computers know what an mp3 is or that music can be virtual. This hasn’t happened yet for movies, but with places like Hulu.com (or NBC pushing shows on NBC.com) and with various set-top boxes (such as TiVo, Roku, XBox 360, PS3, etc…) streaming and downloading television shows and movies for free or for a fee, the trend is only likely to continue. It’s a growing market. The fact that the next PSP (PSP Go) will only play digitally downloaded games is just another sign of this trend. TiVo’s, arguably the most significant DVRs in the market, can play movies purchased through Amazon Video On Demand and through Netflix. YouTube is pushing for premium content as well, and I’m sure TiVo’s will support this as well. Other DVRs (pushed through cable companies) will likely provide the same service to compete, or will stick with the cable company’s pay-per-view program, possibly extending this to allow ownership of movies.
So, the writing is on the wall. Perhaps you are seeing some other writing. Maybe you see something that indicates that fewer and fewer people are buying digital music and that CD sales are on the incline. Maybe you see newer and newer devices opting to keep harddrives out of the systems, to not have Internet access, and to prevent downloads. Maybe you see new music-only and movie-only stores cropping up everywhere and going gangbusters selling CDs and DVDs. Maybe you see this kind of activity, and if so, I’d be interested in seeing this side that maybe I haven’t been able to see.
In the meantime, from what I have seen in the marketplace, the writing is on the wall. Digital distribution is on its way to becoming the majority and physical media is on its way to becoming the minority.
My disdain for GameStop is mine along from experience. I miss the old Electronics Boutique. They gave more wall and rack space to PC games and new console games… and now this is gone. From experience dealing with the staff in the three GameStops in my area have made me really dislike visiting the stores anymore. I now focus on Best Buy and Target for those purchases.
You seem to completely ignore the power of the consumer in the marketplace. If you already think we are all just victims of retail outlets, then why are you so vehemently defending the retail outlets? The only reason they can take advantage of people with digital downloads is because it is a small market at the moment. Once it becomes the majority, and the number of people relying on it are the majority, people will speak with their wallets. There will still be a little bit of “reaming”, such as that which happened from CDs. Remember when people were promised by the music industry that the only reason CDs were more expensive than tapes was because CD technology was new… and expensive… and that the costs would eventually come down to BELOW cassette costs, because it costs more in material for cassettes? Well, the cost didn’t come down. The new explanation? Because CD-quality is better than tape-quality, so you’re getting what you’re paying for. Nonetheless, digital downloads is competition for physical media… so the existence of digital downloads is competition everyone should be happy about, because it will drive down the price of the physical media as it starts becoming the minority. Rather than making higher-quality audio CDs, you may start seeing higher-quality audio downloads as the option, further driving down the price of “lower-quality CDs” once high-quality becomes the majority-rule of the market.
The fact that you have taken this discussion to the level of online forums where 12-year-olds argue is why I am not likely to continue this discussion with you. I really really hope you are a teenager, because then your attitude would have made a little sense and my faith in society as a whole will have returned. If, however, you happen to be (gulp) in your thirties like me, I will have lost all hope for society. If your best argument is to come up with insults like I broke my computer’s retractable cup-holder, then I would much rather leave this pointless discussion. I’m not trying to change your mind. I gain nothing from this. I’m not looking to have my mind change, though I would appreciate some new knowledge (like maybe you have some statistics about market trends that I’m not aware of) and maybe this knowledge would be enough to make me realize that what I have been seeing all around me isn’t really happening nation-wide, which I am willing to accept that it hasn’t. I don’t live in a big city, but I don’t live in a small town. I live where they used to hold the TED talks for many years until they recently changed the venue. I don’t have a PhD, but I don’t think one needs to have a PhD to be intelligent or observant. If you have a PhD, I applaud you. I know many people (in real life, not on the Internet) who have PhDs and I enjoy discussions with them. Of course, they don’t just start insulting me like 12-year-olds because they don’t have a better argument. Oh well.
“I will leave you to the rest of your long posts which, incidentally, are also coming across rather angrily. There are no emotional outbursts on my part about this topic. Technology is just technology.”
And your replies to me were filled with insults and personal jabs, pot calling the kettle black much?
“You ask for “proof” but, to me, the proof is all around us. The very fact that you listed MP3/MP4 as valid successors to Vinyl, CD, etc just helps prove my point. Are Vinyl records “still around”?”
…. seriously?
I never said no technology should ever become obselete, I just said the concept of physical media will not become obselete. This dosen’t mean you should continue using 8 track tapes and betamax.
“Look how popular the iPod is. It isn’t popular because it’s a great piece of hardware… because there were plenty of great pieces of hardware (mp3 players) which preceded it. The difference was, the music store was “built-in”.”
Actually, the majority of it’s popularity is simply that it is an Apple product.
When the iPhone was launched, people were talking about the wonders of a cellphone that can go online as if nobody had ever made a cellphone that can go online before.
The iTunes store no longer has DRMed tracks, yet the iPod is still popular over other media players, fancy that. Its because of that little Apple logo on it.
“Netflix, which started off with only physical DVD rentals have pushed hard into the digital content delivery.”
Netflix is more of a rental service.
You pay monthly for access to their entire library at once… but you lose all of your access when you stop paying.
“The fact that the next PSP (PSP Go) will only play digitally downloaded games is just another sign of this trend.”
Oh sure, this has absolutely NOTHING to do with the fact that the UMD is a battery-draining, noisy, incredibly slow loading piece of crap right?
Also, games will still be released on UMD as well.
“So, the writing is on the wall. Perhaps you are seeing some other writing.”
Sorry, the only writing here is yours, fiulled with mis-informed “facts” and incorrect claims.
I seriously STILL cannot believe you thought we had topped out on audio and video tech and we will never need a physical medium better than blu-ray for movies… That alone basically completely discredits your entire argument.
“Maybe you see blah blah blah”
See? Nothing but more jabs and insults. Its liek you cannot resist but to try to act smug.
“You seem to completely ignore the power of the consumer in the marketplace.”
Wrong, if the “power of the consumer” meant anything, then DD-only will never happen, because the consumer would not want to give up their rights. You as a consumer do not speak for every other consumer on the planet.
“The fact that you have taken this discussion to the level of online forums where 12-year-olds argue is why I am not likely to continue this discussion with you.”
I am sorry but you took that level far earlier with your constant insults and jabs, not to mention countless incorrect points and claims. All you claim is “this is what the consumer wants” and when pressed for facts, you refuse to give any, claiming it should be obvious as a half-hearted attempt to skirt the issue. Don’t try to end this with your nose stuck up high, you are just in deep as I am, if not deeper. Do not forget that it was only after the fifth or so time you replied with insults that I finally took it personally.
“I really really hope you are a teenager, because then your attitude would have made a little sense and my faith in society as a whole will have returned.”
I see you are now basically repeating what I said about you only now aimed at me. And yet you STILL claim to have the high ground in this discussion?
YOU started the insults, not me, I hanged on but after several posts as such from you it was clear you were not able to respond to me WITHOUT insulting me.
What happens when the source of your downloads goes wrong?
Sitting at home one night I fancy watching a movie, turn TV on start to watch then you get a message on screen ’sorry this service is temporarily off-line’… I use DVD’s and download… onto DVD lol.
I and many others simply don’t like someone else pulling all the strings, it’s like having all your personal information on some data base or ‘trusting banks with your money’.
That’s a good question and is one that needs to be resolved before download adoption really takes off. If downloads could be burned to DVD… or could be permanently stored on a hard drive and backed up to a secondary device, this would be key, but there would still be open questions.
Currently, if you use Amazon to purchase a movie and have a TiVo, you can download to your TiVo and keep it there indefinitely. If you use a PS3 to download a movie, you can store it on your hard drive and you can back it up to an external hard drive.
However, if Sony’s service were to permanently vanish one day… what happens? Or, if Amazon’s service were to vanish… what then? Sure, I still have my downloads, but what happens when the hard drive fails?
These companies seem to want to treat hard drives like permanent discs. That if a hard drive goes bad, it is no different than a disc getting scratched up. However, I can be extra responsible and make sure my DVDs last for 15-20 years or more. With hard drives, however, sometimes they just go bad… at no fault of the user.
I’m all for physical media vanishing from the store shelves… but only if there is a way to backup download media to something safer than a hard drive… whether this means burning it to a disc… or being able to back the file up to your “cloud storage of choice”… while it may seem counterproductive to perform a “backup” of virtual media to “the cloud”… by at least being able to store content through competing providers, there is a backup plan (no pun intended) if one of those providers gets purchased, changes their terms to something undesirable, cancels their service, etc…
I would be willing to purchase *ALL* future movies via download at FULL PRICE… if it meant I could backup my Amazon-bought movies on Sony’s servers (for later re-download)… and Sony’s purchases on Amazon’s servers (for later re-download)… and Google’s servers if they eventually provided such storage capabilities… etc…
Until this point, I’d rather build a library I could more easily protect… on DVD… or Blu-ray…
“I’m all for physical media vanishing from the store shelves…”
I most definitely am NOT.
Why? Loss of rights!
You can’t sell.
You can’t buy used.
You can’t borrow from a friend.
You can’t lend to a friend.
No competition so no need to lower prices.
etc etc.
THIS is the reason the MPAA and all game publishers are drooling at the idea of a world locked to DD only. You think they give two shits about your convince? They just want to make sure that the ONLY way you can buy movie is directly from them, new, at the highest price possible, and on their terms.
You think DRM is insane now? Wait until the world is DD only my friend.
I own quite a few blu-rays and as well as digital download movies and I must say that even the “hd” downloads don’t quite pass muster compared to BR discs.
In terms of a/v quality that is.
Was that Harris poll a snare to expose pro-DD journos and bloggers as idiots? Look at the percentages they reckon own HD DVD players, that’s about 13 million US households, or 13 times the numbers of players that Toshiba said it had sold in two years when they conceeded in 2008, and the web is now full of gleeful digiminati crowing about how physical media is dead, ignoring that DD’s dire growth figures make Blu Ray look like a runaway success, and even then they have to include VOD.
A load of so-called journalists just got suckered and made to look like imbeciles. Bravo Harris, bravo!
Simply owning an HD-DVD player doesn’t mean anything. I also still own a cassette player, but I never use it anymore. I also own a VCR, but it also never gets used.
Asking a question such as “Which of the following devices do you own?” will always yield results that makes it look like ancient technology is super popular and newer technology is “losing”.
If the question were, instead, “Which of the following devices do you expect to sell in a garage sale?” or “Which of the following devices would you sell for the same price you purchased it for if given the opportunity?” would yield a more reasonable result of where technology is headed.
There was a time when almost everyone owned a zip drive for their computer, but we all see where that ended up.
The music industry isn’t quite dead yet. Is it?