Everybody’s making noise about the upcoming Apple tablet, and who can blame them? It’ll certainly be an interesting device, but the thing is that nobody really knows what it’s going to be. Flat, to be sure, and tablet-shaped in all likelihood, but beyond that it’s pretty much anybody’s guess. Analyst-at-large Gene Munster has made a list of predictions anyway, since his job is to turn ignorance into money.
So what does he think you can expect? Sales, for one thing. Via a house-of-cards sort of logic peculiar to analysts like himself, he first determines the features, then the price, then the sales, then the revenue. Here are his nested prognostications, as summarized by Fortune’s Brainstorm Tech.
• Be similar to an iPod touch, only larger, capable of running most of the 70,000 applications on the iPhone App Store plus a new category of apps designed for the bigger screen.
• Will be used primarily for Web surfing, e-mail, and digital media, competing with netbooks without being a netbook.
• Will be priced between an iPhone and a MacBook — between $500 and $700.
• Is likely to include a 3G cellular modem and could be subsidized by a carrier — either AT&T (T) or Verizon (VZ).
• Will sell better than Apple TV did its first year (1.2 million units).
• Could in fact sell 2 million units at $600 each to generate $1.2 billion and add about 3% to Apple’s revenue stream in calendar 2010.
Now, I’m not saying he’s wrong on all these points (though, as Boing Boing Gadgets points out, his track record isn’t inspiring); in fact, they’re more or less in line with my own predictions. I’d submit, though, that the App Store thing is troubling. You’d expect some info would have leaked by now regarding how to program or adapt your apps for this thing. Since nothing has come out, it is implied that the tablet runs either iPhone apps or OS X apps natively (or both). I don’t think that’s likely, or even a good idea. After all, every app in the store is configured for an iPhone’s hardware. Innumerable compatibility problems could arise.
Most troubling of all is the fact that the iPhone’s screen is a mere 320×480; if the Apple tablet is at 1280×720 (my guess), it’s beyond the power of resizing and filtering to make these apps full screen or even reasonably large (not to mention the aspect ratio difference). And I doubt Apple would be satisfied with ugly little app “widgets” clogging up what will almost certainly be a serene and controlled user interface. I don’t have a solution for this, I might add… not my job. I’m hoping Apple does.
And as for the somewhat arbitrary prediction that Apple will sell 2 million units, I find it unconvincing. We heard from a previous analyst (who has actually seen the device, or so he claims) that all the other companies are just waiting for Apple to go so they can undercut and offer the same services. I think that unlike the full OS X (which I don’t think the tablet will run) or the iPhone’s OS (ditto), this tablet’s OS will offer fewer chances to innovate, though I have faith that Apple will throw a few curveballs in there, likely to do with elegantly implemented gestures. Still, 2 million units is a lot to ask for a completely new type of platform, in an economy when an entirely new price point below this one (and offering more functionality) has risen to prominence.
If I had to weigh in (and I don’t really), I’d say that it’s going to be a success, but will fill the same role in the upcoming tablet wars as the Mac fills in the PC wars: a luxury option. Perhaps in a year or two, we’ll be hearing how Apple sold 90% of the tablets costing over $700, but I don’t think it’s too far out to think that competitors like Asus, Dell, and our own CrunchPad will be doing a lot of selling too — higher volumes at lower price points, yes, but I think that’s appropriate for a tablet. We’ll have more on the phantom tablet as it develops, but feel free to make your own predictions.
Whatever Apple makes gets this kinda reaction, its Apples perfection and Apples beautiful masterpieces are the sole cause of this comotion.
Get a room, you two
Get a room, you two++
How about a modified Mobile OSX with Web apps? (just like the iPhone started)
To hell with Apple, where’s the CrunchPad?
Yes, where is the Crunchpad in all of this?
Hang in there! Microsoft is working on it.
I think that Apple will have to launch an e-book reader application (iTunes is the perfect medium) so it will also compete with Amazon and Sony, in the end this is the same format.
Kindle be dead!
hoorayyy!!!!
The Google/Qualcomm joint venture development of the SmartBook will be the premier must-own device.
Watch http://www.MeetSmartBook.com
As a student, all I want is a device that can carry every book in digital format so I don’t have to lug 50 pounds of books around campus. Amazon’s Kindle is getting there, but has a long way to go for the college student to lay down that kind of cash.
Completely agree – Apple needs to come out with some sort of “killer app” for this thing, and the e-book store in itunes is just the ticket for this. A book store with size to rival Amazon, locked up with DRM in your iTablet.
Also in the e-book store would be some sort of content publishing platform so news outlets could sell subscriptions to applications like the NYT reader for a recurring fee.
I think Simon’s on the right track.
I also wonder whether it will have the docking ports for the LED Cinema Display – http://www.apple.com/displays/features.html – which will give it a full-on Internet workstation mode.
It’s clear that this thing will have to run a different kind of application – developer information will come out long before it gets released.
Remember that one talking point for Snow Leopard was to implement OS-wide resolution independance. With that in place I see no reason why iPhone apps couldn’t run on a 10″ screen.
the assets for iphone apps aren’t all vector files and whatnot (as I’m sure they are in snow leopard), there’s lots of bitmap stuff involved. It’d be an inconsistent, blurry disaster.
I don’t think that will work very well. Since we developed a platform to support catalogs and magazine-like products for the iPhone, the tablet may provide us a niche.
I am developing some prototypes based on the idea that different application sizes may be a very good thing. The biggest problem in design is developing an application that should be small, at a large size. Isn’t the whether app as a widget perfectly proportioned? Why on earth would I make this fill a 10″ screen?
The larger issues include the navigation and file/application views…
Will Mike A. now be mad at Apple as it kills CrunchPad?
Would you be mad if your product did most of what a world-class computer maker offers, for half the price? Honestly there are still issues of functionality, compatibility, weight, etc to be determined before we start speculating on that.
You guys and this “Crunchpad”.
Only BLOGGERS know what a frickin Crunchpad is. It’s DOA.
COME ON APPLE TABLET!~!
lol.
Twitter is down?
Twinester is up!!!!!!!!!!!
There is no way apple can get away selling basically an iTouch XL for $700 – and they know that. This guy is retarded. It has be more similar to OS X apps – I’m not saying App Store apps won’t be accessible – I’m sure they will – but you should be able to have OS X (or OS X Lite) Apps running on the machine. It’s too expensive for just an iPod Touch lite.
i don’t know about the retarded part but i wont the complete hybrid and i want it to be decent and i will even pay more than $700 to have it do what all the apple paltforms do. i wonder if someone answered my will i be able to do work on this tablet question…because i hope this tablet will be my new computer-library-entertainment unit. but from what is being written i guess it will not be.
iBook…
I reiterate: why would a larger iPod touch-esque device cost the same amount as the iPhone(unsubsidized)? i see a market for tablets but this aint one. it’s just a large iPod touch. NOT A TABLET…
Duh… mr analyst
700 US$? This is what I expect
-Enough power to watch HD video
-Enough memory to hold thousands of songs and enough videos for 6 hours
-Enough Battery to run for at least 8 hours without recharge
-GPS, (yes, too many apps use it already. I want one included)
-yes, book reader too
-I´ll be playing games also, so it better have a good video card
-Some kind of keyboard (i´ll be writing e-mails)
-2 G of RAM
-Camera
-microphone (you bet I am going to use skype on this thng)
-speakers
oh, and also, some kind of hard cover because these things tend to fall
I guess that with all that I would probably pay 700USD. Not a 100% sure yet.
Yes… I think the big use cases are:
- Watching Hulu, Apple TV – (sync with iMac for DVDs etc.) – perfect for couples to watch together – implies a little flip-out leg to stand on table/bed etc.
- Video calls for individuals, couples, families – microphone and camera essential
- Reading web pages and ebooks
- Home photo and video viewing – and editing!
- Games
- Improved flashlight vs Touch :-)
GPS seems like a stretch for something primarily likely to be used for watching TV inside the home.
battery won’t last 8 hrs… i’d guess 64GB of space…. integrated graphics… no GPS. this isn’t a mobile device, it’s a home device. just my two cents on those things.
Maybe they’ll put an EEStor ultracapacitor in there for 24+ hours of life. Only half kidding…
If it’s anything like iTunes and the iPhone, it will be a closed platform worthy of disdain. If it’s more like their PowerBook line, then things get interesting.
can it be a good hybrid of all of those platforms.
Couldn’t they just open the apps in a smaller set size that is more like the iphone and allow them to run like that? Then the main point of the larger screen would be for regular media like music and videos and web browsing. Certainly would never buy the first generation one, but great point about the developers being left out on this one. Seems they made the iphone what it is and this tablet will need them.
OLPC XO-2 — grr Apple could do wonders.
I am looking at developing textbooks on the platform utilizing our CMS system for the iPhone. It could be pretty amazing. I left my business developing such products for the educational publishers several years ago because the product was not very interesting. This could change that!
so can i actually do work on it? that’s all i want. i want to be able to use it like how i use my computer and my tv entertainment system but combined. i agree with the guy who said he doesn’t want to lug around lots of books. i’m putting all my hope in apple to give me something that is like my pc/laptop/tv/sound system, but is a tablet…i could probably just get one of those stupid touchscreen computers i have to insert into a table because it’s too big for me to carry around. so i actually would appreciate the portablility of this tablet.
is this actually happening, this apple tablet? tablets have been out for other companies and still haven’t become popular/the norm. if this apple tablet is good i will buy it at whatever cost.
it’s almost certainly happening… but it’s not FOR work. that’s what people misunderstand, I’d say. It’s for casual stuff, watching a TV show on the couch, checking your personal email, etc. real work will still be on laptops and desktops and smartphones.
Why would I want to sit on a couch, holding up an expensive Apple tablet to watch a show on, while I have a big screen hanging there hooked up to a media center or something?
well, *I* don’t have a big screen, and don’t really want one. I’d rather watch my media wherever I am. Of course, holding a tablet for an hour isn’t really something I want to do… I guarantee there will be accessories all over the place though.
Precisely.
I surf from my couch already with a wireless keyboard and a 40 inch screen.
I don’t own a television, and see such personal device as being more appropriate to the scale of television. A 20″ screen was considered normal as a kid! YMMV…
I am posting a photo at my blog (blog.modoku.com) of a group of kids watching a Family Guy video on the bus in Chicago yesterday. They were using an AT&T slider device, but I am unsure of the OS. It was pretty fascinating in light of these discussions. Television used to be more of a group activity, and it is now some solitary guy (or woman) in front of a big screen.
Whether or not it is an Apple device is irrelevant, but such things are pretty common on flights, and would make a great pro mobile organizer. eLearning and such will be incredibly powerful on such products.
awww. there goes all my hopes and dreams. so this means i won’t become a loyal apple consumer anytime soon. thanks for the clarification. that’s what i thought it was going to be when i heard the rumours about this, but i just thought that it could be something else…something better. they have to start somewhere though. i was going to pay money for it too. oh well. i was thinking maybe i could work on some projects while multitasking. i was looking into getting those minicomp’s but instead got a regular laptop. i guess i don’t mind hauling it around. helps to build muscle.
i was getting concerned with having to hold the tablet or have it on lap and have it heat up, but people hold their laptops and place it on their laps all the time.
casual stuff is good too. atleast they are addressing a need for some people.
F**K DEVIN COLDEWEY
THAT DUMB B*TCH.
Why do you say this?
He seems quite smart and polite.
If he insulted your start-up, opinion or your personality then you should have a look at how you can improve it, keep it to yourself or crawl into a hole and die.
What have you got against Mr Coldewey?
in full agreement with alec. in caps nonetheless. smh @ crunchsux person.
alec=alex.
uhhh
here here! devin is quite dumb!
It’s okay, he’s from suburban Mississippi, can’t blame him for being angry.
We can and will.
a tablet..
a crunchpad tablet device…. hehehehehe!!!
look guys… there will be some people who buy tablet devices.. always are.
but when i can get a 17″ laptop with 4G and a 200G drive at walmart… for….. $$$ 430!!!!
then good luck with beating that on price/functionality!
hell at that price, they’re getting close to being throw away items…
use ‘em for a year.. buy a new one!
That laptop sounds like something that will die soon after purchase.
Hmm is seems like my comment didnt get through.
“That laptop sounds like something that will die soon after purchase. It doesent sound like it could even last a year. And usually your better off buying a good laptop that functions effectively for a high price that will last and that you can rely on. To each their own though.”
I noted that in the post.
Give us a true replacement for my paperbook organiser/day planner on the same form-factor and some modest weight (not more than a pound). You got the Newton 3 in the iTablet. Just provide the BT compatibility to the Apple Wireless keyboard.
Yeah 2million units are easy. 10M per year maybe a bit challenged due to the price tag.
I always said that the Newton needed another couple of inches of screen real estate and a cell network connection. I will use such a device as my primary mobile connection.
Google Voice! Grumble…