Oh, Gene Munster. You keep popping up like the loose Cheerios my nine-month-old daughter drops at breakfast. What are you up to this time, you little scamp?
Munster of Piper Jaffray “predicts” that AT&T will lose its iPhone exclusivity by the end of 2010, thereby rendering the company impotent and insolvent. Some contenders for the iPhone throne include Verizon. This ignores the fact that AT&T is fighting like a champ to keep the iPhone until 2011 but it seems the popular perception of AT&T as a pile of fail may put a damper on Apple’s wish to stay put.
Is Munster right? Well there has been a little discussion of a non-GSM iPhone on the Internets. Look at the logistics: Sprint isn’t going to take the phone – they’re wrapped up in Palm right now – and T-Mobile is busy with Android. That leaves behemoth Verizon. Quoth Munster:
“We believe Apple is unhappy with the current status of video on the iTunes Store and is working to change it,” Munster said. “These changes, however, will take time, in the form of lengthy negotiations, in order to bring the rights for TV and movies up to speed in a digital world.”
I think a CDMA iPhone is in the cards, certainly, and I suspect they’ll try something like Blackberry and add a SIM card slot for international roaming. iPhone users are a nomadic lot and I can only imagine the outrage when a bunch of study abroad students turn on their Verizon iPhones and find they don’t work in Florence. As for the CDMA model coming “within the year?” Eh. Don’t hold your breath. The iPhone is selling pretty briskly right now and ramping up production of a CDMA model would be difficult at best.
Take all this with a grain of salt, though. Analysts are notoriously, well, wrong. Rob at BBG said it best when commenting on the AppleTVTV:
Their clients gamble that analysts know more. And sometimes, they do. As often as not, however, analyst clients end up paying someone with few real contacts to tell them the same thing that bloggers with few real contacts have already told the whole world, for the lulz.
Yes, friends, we work for the lulz.
Image from this funny dude
I keep hearing this; that Verizon and Apple are winding down on “talks” and “contact” by the end of this year..
I wish I could trust rumors; I went ahead and got a VZW BlackBerry, but once that iPhone comes out; I am all over it.
James F.
TwitterBackground.com
Isn’t Verizon upgrading their CDMA to something better soon too? Anyone know?
Yeah, they should be starting to roll out LTE by the end of this year/early next year according to an article from MG a month or two ago. I would be surprised to see a CDMA iPhone. If Verizon is able to get their LTE network rolled out quick enough, a LTE-capable iPhone would make much more sense.
But, then there is the problem of how it will work on Verizon’s network in areas where LTE doesn’t exist yet. It’s a confusing situation.
Not likely, AT&T will be one step ahead of any tech-network upgrades that could be rolled out (much bigger than just LTE required). Thus AT&T is the way to go, despite what the uninformed have told you. Fanboys everywhere will cry themselves to sleep when they learn that poor iphone performance is not caused by AT&T, but by the iPhone itself.
Problem with an LTE iPhone is that they can’t claim to be on Verizon’s “largest/bestest/fasterest/whatever 3G network” because that’s EV/DO. If you weren’t in one of Verizon’s (what, 10?) planned LTE rollout cities, you’d be left to roam onto . . . AT&T!
LTE is a GSM technology and the first LTE phones for Verizon will need to support LTE and CDMA. An LTE iPhone would need to support both . . . while it’s not out of the question, it’s not like they can stick an LTE modem into the 3GS and expect it to work with any kind of success on Verizon.
Which is why the tablet iPod Touch would make sense. Sell it as an iPod, if the customer has access to LTE allow them to connect as a data client (Google Voice!). I do believe that the tablet is a real option at some point. It makes too much sense. We’d all like it to exist as a product not requiring a cell connection, but with the option. It would be easy to provide this on multiple operator networks as well with GSM/EDGE/LTE.
“I think a CDMA iPhone is in the cards, certainly, and I suspect they’ll try something like Blackberry and add a SIM card slot for international roaming.”
They already have sim card slots…thats how mine is on TMobile..
CDMA phones don’t have a sim card by default, so he was saying if they made a CDMA version, it’d be likely for it to have a sim card slot too. That would make it compatible with GSM towers when roaming internationally.
I’d break my contract with AT&T to jump over to Verizon in a heartbeat. I’m sure thats bad news for AT&T as I am not alone.
When and if the iPhone comes to Verizon I will wait and see if Verizon has the same issues handling all of the data use that AT&T struggles with. If they prove they can handle it then I will look at making the switch.
I agree, although I do think that once it’s not tied to one network (I assume that AT&T would still have it even when Verizon does, although I could be wrong) the load will be able to balance a bit more as a lot of uses stick with AT&T and some users jump to Verizon, so Verizon might have a slower ramp-up of iPhone users than AT&T had. Although it could sell like hotcakes on Verizon’s network, too, which would be good for Apple but bad for Verizon’s network and all users on any network.
Oh heck yeah, I’m with Carl. I held off upgrading to the GS in hopes that exclusivity would end in 2010. I love my iPhone, but abhor AT&T and their horrendous network and customer service.
I believe this is exactly what lots of people is thinking now, including me.
and me.
I’m with everybody who says ITs Blackberry till Verizon iPhone
@techdom
In Israel Apple works with the three mobile operators, which will either have everybody in Israel own an iPhone or generate significant losses to all three operators. Apple is secured either way.
Apple has sold ~20M iPhones. Ever.
Nokia sells ~100M phones per QUARTER.
Let’s keep things in perspective–the iPhone is a great shiny object, but in the greater cell phone market, it’s almost a rounding error.
Yes, but Apple makes a much greater profit margin on the iPhones and iPhone customers generally spend a lot more on contracts.
And Nokia sells in China… and all those other countries where Apple doesn’t.
Yes, that’s a huge difference in the quantity of phones sold. But how many of those Nokia’s also sell data plans with them? Also what’s the profit margin per Nokia phone vs. iPhone?
Apple and RIM have 35% of Device Sale Profits at a 3% Market share. Not as easy to round off.
http://bit.ly/FWrGo
And GM sold the most cars in the world right up until 2008.
Through a family connection, I had the chance to have an informal talk with a powerful Verizon person a month or 2 ago. Verizon is indeed in talks with Apple and have been for some time, but I do not know how serious the talks have gotten.
AT & T sucks,,very bad service and poor 3G speed.I’ll cancel my iphone plan and go with verizon iPhone plan,if its possible.I want to use voip service on 3G or 4G also.I was using verizon before,but becuase of iPHone i have to choose poor AT & T.
I don’t see apple creating a CDMA specific phone for a single operapr when their entire model is built to standardize on a single technology GSM not CDMA. Especially if lte is on the horizon. If it happens great, but doesn’t sit well given their reluctance to do one off thing ( I.E. Qa and testing are completely different)
Didn’t Apple remove wifi from the iPhone for China? I used to think along the same lines as you (CDMA phone unlikely because Apple doesn’t like to “folk” hardware) but then I heard that they’d “tweaked” the design somewhat for the China release and I got to wondering (or hoping, as I want the iPhone to come to Verizon sooner rather than later)….
apple should buy cellular tower access wholesale and become its own carrier (akin to virgin mobile who “rents” access from sprint). not very realisitic.. but a guy can dream.
I’m holding off buying a smart phone until there’s a decent one available for Verizon. I will not leave their service for AT&T. My guess is the iPhone comes to Verizon in 2011.
I would get an iPhone as soon as it’s available for Verizon. I have no love for ATT and its nonsense.
I can’t stand the general thought that it’s totally out of the question for them to make changes to the iPhone for a carrier. They just did it for China, although it’s still GSM. They did it! It upsets me to see a phone with an undeserving carrier.
Oh yeah and if they “approached Verizon with iPhone” prior to going to AT&T, that REALLY makes me think it’s not as hard of a change as everyone is making it out to be.
On the other hand, when they approached Verizon they had presumably not already finalized the design with GSM. I assume at that point they were still open to using whatever tech the carrier they went with used (so if Verizon had agreed they wouldn’t be changing from GSM, but just adding CDMA to a design that had no network defined).
I wouldn’t be surprised to see the iPhone hit Sprint. Sprint is not all wrapped up with Palm, that exclusiveness runs out in a couple of months. However, with them adding the HTC Hero to their lineup next month, who knows.
Verizon is even worse than AT&T, so I don’t see how this is going to work out. The iPhone’s OS is already severely crippled, Verizon is going to bastardize it beyond repair.
There is -zero- chance of AT&T growing or retaining ground via renewals on the iPhone if exclusivity is lost. Every other non-AT&T carrier would relish even a 50% variation in ARPU. To compete, AT&T will have to drop price. Period.
Everyone needs to go back and remember what your mobile phone was like before EDGE, before EVDO, and before it was just assumed that browsing, video, and chat on a mobile phone was a gawd given right.
That pile of old Moto StarTac’s in the back room should tell you something. Namely, we’ve come a long way and it wasn’t because we were clinging to analog cellular form factors.
Placing both GSM, CDMA, and LTE ready path chipset in the SAME iPhone form factor is not only possible but advisable as you reach beyond MM units. Seriously, it’s not like the iPhone is already stuffed to the gills with boards and chipsets or that the battery is far too large. Mobile component options have changed in fabrication, availability, and sourcing since the original iPhone.
Also, quoting Rob Beschizza completely out of context doesn’t really dampen the market prospect here. In fact, it kind of promotes it.
Consumer electronics like a “TV set” is a world away from telecommunications. It is a completely different type of analyst, subject matter expert, etc… but when that TV becomes a connected Internet device reached only through so-called incumbent providers (ISPs, Telcos, MSOs, etc.) there can be a great deal of changes in a very short period of time. That said, a ecosystem collision play (TV/media+telecom) is inherently more difficult to prognosticate.
So, lulz aside, there is a lot at stake here besides iPhone, AT&T, and Verizon. This is really about a fundamental shift in all handset exclusivity and so-called converged network supplier/provider markets.
In a year? That’s like two years in tech time. The competition is going to be intense by then, the iPhone may not be the king anymore. It certainly is now, but just look at the market, there are plenty of great competitors and they’re getting better all the time. I’d love to have it on Verizon, but by that time, I’ll probably want something else unless they make the iPhone more competitive or better in some super-desirable way.
I really hope Apple decides to expand the iPhone to other carriers. I used to be a Verizon customer and switched to AT&T when my contract ended because I wanted the glorious iPhone. I absolutely love the phone for it’s gps, internet, apps, etc, but service is non-existent where I live. I hope all of this speculation is true and AT&T will lose the iPhone by 2010… because that is when my contract ends! :)
As for the CDMA model coming “within the year?” Eh. Don’t hold your breath. The iPhone is selling pretty briskly right now and ramping up production of a CDMA model would be difficult at best.
And what would stop them from releasing a CDMA/GSM Phone and when LTE is up and running everywhere just switch to make a LTE phone or LTE/GSM/CDMA phone
Its been done before many times you can find phones that support all standards they may be ugly and big but there present.
They could create all phone from Aug and on with a cdma and gsm chip but that does not mean that both chips have to be activated and would have plenty stock for verizon.
You beat me to it.
I really don’t understand why Americans get totally shafted when it comes to phone companies. What’s wrong with the iPhone being available on all networks? That way the phones are subsidised even more because there’s, you know, competition. There’s no magic to supporting the iPhone – all the pissy little phone companies here in Australia seem to do it just fine. I feel for you, my American brothers ands sisters.
There are just as many Verizon subscribers unhappy with their signal quality. Another point is, there are tons of smartphones that can do everything the iPhone can.
You obviously don’t own an iPhone or you would know that this is not true. There is no other phone with the equivalent of even 2 or 3 of my top 10 apps.
F&%!K AT&T…..they suck – someone please get me outta my contract!!!!!!
VZW just “tested” out LTE the past month and have limited plans for a few metro areas next year. I highly doubt Apple would be keen to release a device with LTE connectivity with such a small footprint.
Keep in mind even if LTE was in every major city by end of 2010 you still need to fall back to CDMA so iPhone would need a Tri radio set if not quad so it could roam properly. All the roadmaps I have seen from the carriers don’t even show solid coverage for LTE until 2012/13.
So the question is how bad does Apple want more US business as the states are the core of their iPhone sales. If China fails as badly has Russia, India then I say you see a CDMA iPhone next summer.
LTE is not going to bring open handsets to the states either. I fully expect your LTE device to be somehow locked to your carrier, they just leverage the standard bandwidth signal. But again keep in mind that is years away .. we will see further roll out of 3G and 3G.5 type capacity the next couple years (if not longer)
I switched from Verizon to AT&T when the 3G S came out. Having Verizon my whole life and switching to at&t was a big shock for me. I have gone from having perfect service EVERYWHERE to worrying all the time if i have service. There is no comparison between the two companies. The iPhone will be 100% better on the Verizon network.
Great. I don’t get Techcrunch. It would cover iphone as if Apple is paying it for all the posts. But Techcrunch will not cover BB or Nokia news that well.
And iphone on other networks. I guess there are plenty of better options available on networks other then AT&T. IPhone has its own problems of poor voice quality and really horrible (mainly because it is not working) visual voicemail feature. Honestly I don’t really care if it comes to other networks or not.
Okay. I know this is difficult to understand. But maybe, just maybe they post about the things that will draw the most traffic?
That’s still not going to do anything about how they keep locking developer out so i say F*** at&t & apple…
I can only hope. The only reason I’m obviously holding back from purchasing an iPhone is because of their data plans. I refuse to pay $100 a month for one phone. I cannot wait until AT&T gets the cut.
AT & T is not so popular in IT industry, because people really wants more and friendly feature in their mobile. Nice info. Thanks