You would be hard pressed to find an OLED TV in any brick and mortar retailer besides the Sony Store right now. The technology is amazing, but they just aren’t available yet and that might not change soon according to a iSuppli report. The TVs are too small and the prices are too high to gain any real traction. But, as we all know, that will change as the display tech evolves. However, don’t expect to see a wall full of OLED because the LCD market isn’t slowing down.
However, even with this growth, unit shipments of OLED TV panels will amount to just 850,000 units in 2013 and only 4.7 million units in 2015, up from 25,000 in 2009. This represents a tiny number of shipments compared to the LCD TV panel market, which is set to reach 232.6 million units in 2013.
What we will likely see is similar to the CRT projection TV market growth compared to plasma TVs from earlier in this decade. Stores will carry a few OLED TVs to draw people in like they did with plasma TVs. But once the average Joe sees the price and size compared to an LCD, they will likely opt for the cheaper option and larger option.
As long as OLED continues to mature and carve out a market, it might eventually become the dominate display option. Unless, of course, something new and sexier doesn’t come to market first. Or 3D display take off. *shudder*
OLED is going to be a small niche market in 2015? That is laughable at best. It’s already becoming a small niche market, granted one that is in an early infancy stage, but it went from nothing to what it is now in about a year? That would be the hardest part, just getting the products out there. But look at that, you can buy OLED TV’s right now (Sony, I believe?) and it’s only 2010. By 2012 it’ll be a “small niche market”. By 2015 it’ll be what Plasmas were a few years ago. You can get a 42″ Plasma for around $700 today, a few years ago they were $1500-$2000 and when they first came out they were probably what, twice that? OLED will be the same way. But they’re saying that its going to advance more slowly? I doubt it. That doesn’t seem logical to me. The more we advance, the faster we advance as well.
Did you read the post? The section from Digitimes shows projected numbers which say in 2013, OLED TVs will only have 0.37% of the market that LCDs do. That’s small in my book.
Yep, 2013 will be a small niche market. 2015? I personally don’t think so. That’s all I was trying to say.
Last I checked, it took plasma about 5 years to go from a small 20 or so inch display to a 42 inch display. Now, considering that as technology advances, the faster it will advance as well, I don’t think it’s going to take 5 years this time around. It should only take 3 or 4 at most, by the 5th year, it should be well on its way to replacing todays modern displays.
That and look at all the new devices using OLED. We didn’t have that before with Plasma. So that contributes to the growth of OLED displays as well. Give it two more years and I bet most devices will have OLED displays.
I just can’t see it taking as long as plasma did. That’s not the way it works, at least, not in my head.
There’s no way in the world it will take that long for OLED displays to come down in price and take over the market. Manufacturer’s will find a way to bring down that price point in about two years time.
The projections are dead-on correct. OLED is not yet ready for prime-time in terms of lifespan, which is part of why it won’t go mainstream for several years–between 5-10. It’s not just cost.