Technology analyst firm Strategy Analytics just announced their latest forecast: Sony’s Playstation 3 will will outsell the Wii and Xbox 360 by the time they all end their product cycle. Say what?
Unfortunately analysts are a trusted source in the tech industry, but stuff like this makes me wonder why. SA predicted that 127 million PS3 units will be sold, 103 million Wii units, and an unknown number of Xbox 360′s. That’s right, despite the prediction that the PS3 will win 4evar, they didn’t bother to predict how many Xbox 360s will be sold. SA furthermore goes to predict that the PS3 will continue to be a commercially viable platform for years after the Wii has been replaced by it’s successor. I buy that, but only due to the Blu-ray angle. For years now, the PS3 has been one of the best Blu-ray players other there.
The author of the report goes one step further, predicting that while Nintendo has done a great job with the Wii, it’ll probably peak sometime during 2011, with the Xbox 360 doing the same in 2012 and the PS3 in 2014. All I know for sure is that I’m in the wrong business – Strategy Analytics is charging $6,999 for this report. Please don’t go buy it.
[via PC World]
It is possible that there is no Xbox360 numbers is because Microsoft has not offical stated the number of units that have been replaced and then added to their total number of units moved.
Remember replacing a dead unit is not the same as selling a new unit.
How much did Sony pay them for this report?
I agree with the below poster who states that MS positioned itself much better in the marketplace by releasing a year earlier, add to which the embedded base of Xbox Live subs (no one will ever surpass their online gaming experience, they are much too far ahead of the curve there), and then further add the larger number of exclusive 360 titles. Sony, to its credit though, was a bit more forward-thinking as far as console shelf life. The PS3 (fantastic BD player aside) is darn-near a supercomputer on the inside. Sony intentionally made it much harder for 3rd party developers to make games for it that utilize its technology on purpose – almost to their detriment as large publishers threatened to pull support for the console (this of course never happened). Only now are consumers able to scratch the surface of what is really under the hood of the PS3 graphically and otherwise. Which is to say that playing a game like say Resident Evil 5 on a 360 and PS3 on identical 1080p tv’s one would be hard-pressed to notice a difference between the two. Fast forward to 03/16/2010. I would just love to see what GOW3 looks like on a 360 – quite simply there would be no comparison. This brings me back to Sony’s forward thinking. While MS is busy making its next iteration of the 360, Sony will have dev teams begging to make games for the PS3, with its 2 teraflops versus one on the 360. Just as with the PS2, Sony’s PS3 will be making stellar games (in 3-D as well via a firmware update this summer, another “Gotcha!” to MS. I own all three consoles and am not a “fanboy” of any, but Sony is turning out not to be quite the fools many thought them to be when the PS3 was first released. Just my two cents…
Is this really so far fetched? Nintendo’s Wii was incredibly successful out the gate, yes, but third party developers are shifting away because PEOPLE AREN’T BUYING GAMES. They buy the new Mario’s and Zelda’s, sure – but its becoming more and more clear there isn’t a great market for other games. When Nintendo went outside the box with the Wii, they did something really cool – but the big problem is that third party devs didn’t buy right in from the launch and develop from scratch games for it. They were (and continue to be) ports of PS3 and Xbox games. And the “whole new crowd” of gamers Nintendo brought into the fold are only interested in playing Nintendo games. The rest of us – those who’ve been gaming all along – own a 360 and/or a PS3 that sits alongside the Wii. And none of us are buying the Wii ports of games available on another 360/PS3…because they’re inferior ports. Nintendo will have to make a change, because they’ve pigeon holed themselves to that “new-casual” demographic.
The 360 has been crazy successful because of an awesome business strategy and because they got to market a full year before Sony did. That was reflected in the quality of their hardware – the tech is there, but the flaws clearly weren’t fleshed out. Also, Blu-ray is increasingly a disadvantage for them. M$ bet big and they bet wrong that HD-DVD would win – but when it comes right down to it, they really won’t suffer. It’s getting to be time for them to look at releasing a new console, anyways, so with what they saved on the front end *not* throwing it in, they’ll probably make up for on the back end when they’re forced to release another console before Sony and get the early gamers again.
Regardless, the PS3 is positioned to last a good while longer. The hardware is there, and with the wireless connectivity, standard hard drive, blu-ray, and a suddenly steady stream of publishers readying games for the system that haven’t yet approached the capabilities of the systems hardware, it’s not hard to imagine that Sony will make money on PS3′s for a long, long time. And I’m as surprised as anyone it might play out that way.
PS3 will eventually win out if they can continue to compete in cost and more importantly; availability.
As of right now you can’t buy a new PS3 without getting raked over the coals for it. (and I’m talking about Amazon here) Everywhere else it’s sold out and everyone (myself included) who wanted to buy a PS3 in the last few weeks will have to wait until after April 1.
Sony is really messing up big-time.
I bought a Wii recently. Everyone deserves their own opinion, and mine is that I hate swinging my arms about to play a game. I love the Virtual Console – that’s the reason I bought it – but I doubt I’ll ever buy a “Wii” game again, now that I own Mario Kart and Smash Brothers. Not sure what policemen have to do with it, but to each their own.
“Unfortunately analysts are a trusted source in the tech industry, but stuff like this makes me wonder why.”
Are you a Xbox 360 fanboy or what.
Erbo:
0
Well, that took longer then I expected.
No, I don’t have a particular preference for a console. It’s just silly that a company that expects to be paid for their opinions doesn’t bother to provide all of the information.
After 09 everyone realized that PS3 is here to stay.. yea 360 had some good exclusives but that was so 08 07 but this is present… i dont see many good xclusives this year for 360 nd plus the the three ring death shit… who knows.
ps3 has a bright future.
GOD of WAr iii perfect example
i dnt kno why people say how xbox live is way betta when it all depends on the internet strenght if you are using a ps3. i never had a problem of lag with my online expierence. why pay….
DOne deal
PS3 is already obsolete.
Onlive and cloud streaming make the console obsolete for everything except streaming Onlive.
Netflix instant and other such services definitely make Blu-Ray obsolete.
Consoles were the worst possible model for media and content delivery- even worse than cable.
We are in the process of disintermediating firms like Sony. Sony occasionally will crank out a good movie or a good screen or camera but in general seems to do more harm than good.
As much as I want to agree with you, I doubt OnLive and similar technologies will realistically obsolete consoles for a number of years. Until, say, 2014, when the PS3 will allegedly burn out.
There are bound to be a bunch of unforseen kinks that need to be worked out, and furthermore, developers aren’t used to the idea of programming a game for a supercomputer. Or, alternatively, truly taking advantage of nearly-limitless hardware would require multiple years of engine development. Until then, there won’t be many “killer apps” for OnLive to encourage people to give up their PS3s and 360s (or not buy the PS4 or 720).
PS3 fanboys are happy with the report and Xbots are not. But the report is ridiculous for the reasons stated in the article.
The analysis reeks. If someone reading it can’t get that either side they feel good about supporting, they need to look hard at look at their life and ask themselves how for gone am I?
Thank you. +1 for reading the article and getting my point.
XBOX 360 ROCKS! PS3 CAN KISS IT!
Having had two 360′s (both dead now-yes RROD) and now having a PS3, i’ve come to a conclusion, the PS3 is a far more reliable, and a better player of games, but there are certainly some things I miss about the Xbox, such as the controller (just find it far better) managed to hack my 360 controller to work on the PS3! so thats sorted.
One of the main things about the 360 that I miss is XBOX Live, ok so you have to pay for it,but it just has that exra geek factor that I need, on a rainy dark day, i’d rather be curled up in bed playing on Xbox Live than PSN to be fully honest.
Fortunately I’m privilaged enough to have a few good mates who chipped in and bought me a 360 for my birthday! so now I have both consoles, now im crossing my fingers and hoping the 360 doesn’t crash again :S
Conclusion: 360- better online PS3- better overall. but If I HAD to choose one over the other, I’d definately go with the PS3, but certainly I’d go with a heavy heart, Xbox Live is just that good.
First of all I just wanted to say that $6999 was my fee for the interview. I actually charged an extra 5k on top of that to let them drop my name at other functions. I do believe that the PS3 although with its faults and slow start will ultimately win this battle. However, If the PS3, 360, and Wii had been released at the same exact time then we could have had a real good race. This time around all 3 consoles were released at different times. So obviously PS3 being released last should have the last say. I am overall happy with my PS3 even though it YLOD on me once and I had to pay for a replacement I am still happy with the console. I expect big things for them this year. I already pre-ordered GOW3 Ultimate Edition and I plan on not being seen for a week while I beat the game at least twice. First I will start on normal mode then beat it one god mode. Thats just how dedicated I am. Well enough about me or im going to have to charge crunchgear another 5k for my time. Carry on everyone and please always “Play Beyond”.
Josh – I could not agree more – I’ll be locked away in the “PS3″ dungeon some seem to think I am kept in being beaten by Zeus until I fess up to being a P3 “fanboy”. That is simply not the case, however. Anyone who has even see the trailers for GOW3 has to admit that graphically in 1080p that kind of detail simply cannot be achieved on the 360. I pre-ordered with same-day delivery GOW3 so I’ll be MIA for awhile as well. But that doesn’t mean that I won’t be doing the same with Alan Wake, a 360 exclusive, which looks like it plops you into a novel by my favorite author, Stephen King, much as Heavy Rain does for you as a mystery suspense thriller. Ideally, you would just have two consoles, the Wii and its successors, simply for the sheer simplicity and “fun factor” of Nintendo’s games, and a PS3 that can somehow merge Xbox Live onto it, along with its other opening screen features, which are much easier to navigate in my humble opinion. I have been playing the demo of the racing game Blur, which (correct me if I am wrong here) permits players from Live to race against PSN players – the first of its kind. I don’t know if Sony did a demo or if I am some dreg that didn’t get invited, but I have been playing it on the 360 and it looks damn good. Imagine the trash talking (I will be muting my headset and removing the text box from my tv) when “fanboys collide” (that in and of itself could be a game title!). Enough for now, take it easy all!
Sony must have bribed them =p. I think Xbox 360 will be the one to outsell the others. Xbox 360 RULES!!!
Can’t say I blame them.
Ps3 Released at the end of 2006 an has since sold 33.5 million while Xbox 360 released at the end of 2005 and has since sold 39 million consoles.
Figures taken from Wikipedia.
So on a yearly basis, the PS3 is selling more than Xbox 360. If my math is correct, Sony outsells the Xbox 360 by almost 7.14% on a yearly basis.